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2017 Tech Predictions

It’s that time of the year again, when I make predictions for the upcoming year. As has become my tradition now for nigh-on a decade, I will first go back over last years’ predictions, to see how well I called it (and keep me honest), then wax prophetic on what I think the new year has to offer us.


2016 Tech Predictions

As has become my tradition now for nigh-on a decade, I will first go back over last years’ predictions, to see how well I called it (and keep me honest), then wax prophetic on what I think the new year has to offer us.


Welcome back to the blogosphere, Ted

If you’re reading this, it’s because you are on my blog page, and to be more specific, my new-and-improved blog infrastructure. I’m still sorting through all the kinks, but I think I’ve gotten all the links preserved (saints be praised!), or at least the ones that most people would’ve used to link to; if not…. well, that’s why we iterate, right? There’s more to cover about the new blog system (mostly in that it’s a static site generated setup, rather than the render-on-every-hit dasBlog engine I’d been using for a decade now), but I need to get the 2016 Tech Predictions out the door first, so… stay posted.

Peoples be talkin'...

"Ted, where the hell did you go?" I've been getting this message periodically over a variety of private channels, asking if I've abandoned my blog and/or if I'm ever going to come back to it. No, I haven't abandoned it, yes, I'm going to come back to it, but there's going to be a few changes to my online profile that I'll give you a heads-up around... if anybody cares. :-) First of all, as I mentioned before, LiveTheLook and I parted ways back at the end of 2013.

On (Free) Speaking

Remember when I posted about speaking for free at conferences? And everybody got so upset? Because, you know... community! Somebody tell me how this is any different. When a conference chooses not to offer its speakers even a modest stipend beyond expenses (and let's not even begin to discuss the conferences who don't bother covering expenses), they are essentially asking the speaker to do all that work for free. Just like asking a musician to use his music for free.

On Endings

A while back, I mentioned that I had co-founded a startup (LiveTheLook); I'm saddened to report that just after Halloween, my co-founder and I split up, and I'm no longer affiliated with the company except as an adviser and equity shareholder. There were a lot of reasons for the split, most notably that we had some different ideas on how to execute and how to spend the limited seed money we'd managed to acquire, but overall, we just weren't communicating well.

Seattle (and other) GiveCamps

Too often, geeks are called upon to leverage their technical expertise (which, to most non-technical peoples' perspective, is an all-encompassing uni-field, meaning if you are a DBA, you can fix a printer, and if you are an IT admin, you know how to create a cool HTML game) on behalf of their friends and family, often without much in the way of gratitude. But sometimes, you just gotta get your inner charitable self on, and what's a geek to do then?

On speakers, expenses, and stipends

In the past, I've been asked about my thoughts on conferences and the potential "death" of conferences, and the question came up again more recently in a social setting. It's been a while since I commented on it, and if anything, my thoughts have only gotten sharper and clearer. On speaking professionally When you go to the dentist's office, who do you want holding the drill--the "enthused, excited amateur", or the "practiced professional"?

On startups

Curious to know what Ted's been up to? Head on over to here and sign up. Yes, I'm a CTO of a bootstrap startup. (Emphasis on the "bootstrap" part of that--always looking for angel investors!) And no, we're not really in "stealth mode", I'll be happy to tell you what we're doing if you drop me an email directly; we're just trying to "manage the message", in startup lingo. We're only going to be under wraps for a few more weeks before the real site is live.

Farewell, Mr. Ballmer

By this point, everybody who's even within shouting distance of a device connected to the Internet has heard the news: Steve Ballmer, CEO of Microsoft, is on his way out, retiring somewhere in the next twelve months and stepping aside to allow someone else to run the firm. And, rumor has it, this was not his choice, but a decision enforced upon the firm by the Microsoft Board. You know, as much as I've disagreed with some of the decisions that've come out of the company in the last five years or so, I can't help but feel a twinge of sadness for how this ended.

Programming Interviews

Apparently I have become something of a resource on programming interviews: I've had three people tell me they read the last two blog posts, one because his company is hiring and he wants his people to be doing interviews right, and two more expressing shock that I still get interviewed--which I don't really think is all that fair, more on that in a moment--and relief that it's not just them getting grilled on areas that they don't believe to be relevant to the job--and more on that in a moment, too.

On "Exclusive content"

Although it seems to have dipped somewhat in recent years, periodically I get requests from conferences or webinars or other presentation-oriented organizations/events that demand that the material I present be "exclusive", usually meaning that I've never delivered said content at any other organized event (conference or what-have-you). And, almost without exception, I refuse to speak at those events, or else refuse to abide by the "exclusive" tag (and let them decide whether they still want me to speak for them).

Programming Tests

It's official: I hate them. Don't get me wrong, I understand their use and the reasons why potential employers give them out. There's enough programmers in the world who aren't really skilled enough for the job (whatever that job may be) that it becomes necessary to offer some kind of litmus test that a potential job-seeker must pass. I get that. And it's not like all the programming tests in the world are created equal: some are pretty useful ways to demonstrate basic programming facilities, a la the FizzBuzz problem.

"Craftsmanship", by another name

This blog, talking about the "1/10" developer as a sort of factored replacement for the "x10" developer, caught my eye over Twitter. Frankly, I'm not sure what to say about it, but there's a part of me that says I need to say something. I don't like the terminology "1/10 developer". As the commenters on the author's blog suggest, it implies a denigration of the individual in question. I don't think that was the author's intent, but intentions don't matter--results do.

On Sexism, Harassment, and Termination

Oh, boy. Diving into this whole Adria Richards/people-getting-fired thing is probably a mistake, but it’s reached levels at which I’m just too annoyed by everyone and everything in this to not say something. You have one of three choices: read the summary below and conclude I’m a misogynist without reading the rest; read the summary below and conclude I’m spot-on without reading the rest; or read the rest and draw your own conclusions after hearing the arguments.

That Thing They Call "Unemployment"

TL;DR: I'm "unemployed", I'm looking to land a position as a director of development or similar kind of development management role; I'm ridiculously busy in the meantime. My employer, after having suffered the loss of close to a quarter of its consultant workforce on a single project when that project chose to "re-examine its current approach", has decided that (not surprisingly) given the blow to its current cash flow, it's a little expensive keeping an architectural consultant of my caliber on staff, particularly since it seems to me they don't appear to have the projects lined up for all these people to go.

Um... Security risk much?

While cruising through the Internet a few minute ago, I wandered across Meteor, which looks like a really cool tool/system/platform/whatever for building modern web applications. JavaScript on the front, JavaScript on the back, Mongo backing, it's definitely something worth looking into, IMHO. Thus emboldened, I decide to look at how to start playing with it, and lo and behold I discover that the instructions for installation are: curl https://install.meteor.com | sh Um....

Last Thoughts on "Craftsmanship"

TL;DR Live craftsmanship, don't preach it. The creation of a label serves no purpose other than to disambiguate and distinguish. If we want to hold people accountable to some sort of "professionalism", then we have to define what that means. I found Uncle Bob's treatment of my blog heavy-handed and arrogant. I don't particularly want to debate this anymore; this is my last take on the subject. I will freely admit, I didn't want to do this.

More on "Craftsmanship"

TL;DR: To all those who dissented, you're right, but you're wrong. Craftsmanship is a noble meme, when it's something that somebody holds as a personal goal, but it's often coming across as a way to beat up and denigrate on others who don't choose to invest significant time and energy into programming. The Zen Masters didn't walk around the countryside, proclaiming "I am a Zen Master!" Wow. Apparently I touched a nerve.

On the Dark Side of "Craftsmanship"

I don't know Heather Arthur from Eve. Never met her, never read an article by her, seen a video she's in or shot, or seen her code. Matter of fact, I don't even know that she is a "she"--I'm just guessing from the name. But apparently she got quite an ugly reaction from a few folks when she open-sourced some code: So I went to see what people were saying about this project.

Thoughts on a CodeMash Gone By

A year ago today (roughly), I gave the opening keynote at CodeMash 2.0.1.2. For those of you who were there, I don't think I need to tell you what happened. For those of you who weren't there, you probably still heard about, thanks to the Twitterstream of comments and counter-comments that followed. I've more or less tried to keep quiet about it since that time, trying to just let the furor die down (and it did, pretty quickly, I thought) out of respect to the conference organizers.

Thoughts on my new Surface

As a post-Christmas gift to myself, I took a bit of the money that my folks gave us and bought myself a 64GB Surface. Couple of thoughts came to mind as I've sat down to play with this thing: Microsoft doesn't sell a 64GB model with a Type keyboard? I know the touch-thing is, like, the new hotness with everyone, but frankly, having played with a friend's Surface and his (preferred) Touch keyboard cover, I think both he and Microsoft are smoking some serious crack if they think anyone can seriously touch-type on the touch keyboard.

On Uniqueness, and Difference

In my teenage formative years, which (I will have to admit) occurred during the 80s, educators and other people deeply involved in the formation of young peoples' psyches laid great emphasis on building and enhancing our self-esteem. Self-esteem, in fact, seems to have been the cause and cure of every major problem suffered by any young person in the 80s; if you caved to peer pressure, it was because you lacked self-esteem.

On Knowledge

Back during the Bush-Jr Administration, Donald Rumsfeld drew quite a bit of fire for his discussion of knowledge, in which he said (loosely paraphrasing) "There are three kinds of knowledge: what you know you know, what you know you don't know, and what you don't know you don't know". Lots of Americans, particularly those who were not kindly disposed towards "Rummy" in the first place, took this to be canonical Washington doublespeak, and berated him for it.

On Tech, and Football

Today was Thanksgiving in the US, a holiday that is steeped in "tradition" (if you can call a country of less than three hundred years in history to have any traditions, anyway). Americans gather in their homes with friends and family, prepare an absurdly large meal centered around a turkey, mashed potatoes, gravy, and "all the trimmings", and eat. Sometimes the guys go outside and play some football before the meal, while the gals drink wine and/or margaritas and prep the food, and the kids escape to video games or nerf gun wars outside, and so on.

Cloud legal

There's an interesting legal interpretation coming out of the Electronic Freedom Foundation (EFF) around the Megaupload case, and the EFF has said this: "The government maintains that Mr. Goodwin lost his property rights in his data by storing it on a cloud computing service. Specifically, the government argues that both the contract between Megaupload and Mr. Goodwin (a standard cloud computing contract) and the contract between Megaupload and the server host, Carpathia (also a standard agreement), "likely limit any property interest he may have" in his data.

On NFJS

As the calendar year comes to a close, it's time (it's well past time, in fact) that I comment publicly on my obvious absence from the No Fluff, Just Stuff tour. In January, when I emailed Jay Zimmerman, the organizer of the conference, to talk about topics for the coming year, I got no response. This is pretty typical Jay--he is notoriously difficult to reach over email, unless he has something he wants from you.

On Equality

Recently (over the last half-decade, so far as I know) there's been a concern about the numbers of women in the IT industry, and in particular the noticeable absence of women leaders and/or industry icons in the space. All of the popular languages (C, C++, Java, C#, Scala, Groovy, Ruby, you name it) have been invented by or are represented publicly by men. The industry speakers at conferences are nearly all men.

Just Say No to SSNs

Two things conspire to bring you this blog post. Of Contracts and Contracts First, a few months ago, I was asked to participate in an architectural review for a project being done for one of the states here in the US. It was a project dealing with some sensitive information (Child Welfare Services), and I was required to sign a document basically promising not to do anything bad with the data.

Is Programming Less Exciting Today?

As discriminatory as this is going to sound, this one is for the old-timers. If you started programming after the turn of the milennium, I don’t know if you’re going to be able to follow the trend of this post—not out of any serious deficiency on your part, hardly that. But I think this is something only the old-timers are going to identify with. (And thus, do I alienate probably 80% of my readership, but so be it.) Is it me, or is programming just less interesting today than it was two decades ago?

Changes, changes, changes

Many of you have undoubtedly noticed that my blogging has dropped off precipitously over the last half-year. The reason for that is multifold, ranging from the usual “I just don’t seem to have the time for it” rationale, up through the realization that I have a couple of regular (paid) columns (one with CoDe Magazine, one with MSDN) that consume a lot of my ideas that would otherwise go into the blog.

Multiparadigmatic C#

Back in June of last year, at TechEd 2010, the guys at DeepFriedBytes were kind enough to offer me a podcasting stage from which to explain exactly what “multiparadigmatic” meant, why I’d felt the need to turn it into a full-day tutorial at TechEd, and more importantly, why .NET developers needed to know not only what it meant but how it influences software design. They published that show, and it’s now out there for all the world to have a listen.

Tech Predictions, 2011 Edition

Long-time readers of this blog know what’s coming next: it’s time for Ted to prognosticate on what the coming year of tech will bring us. But I believe strongly in accountability, even in my offered-up-for-free predictions, so one of the traditions of this space is to go back and revisit my predictions from this time last year. So, without further ado, let’s look back at Ted’s 2010 predictions, and see how things played out; 2010 predictions are prefixed with “THEN”, and my thoughts on my predictions are prefixed with “NOW”: For 2010, I predicted....

Thoughts on an Apple/Java divorce

A small degree of panic set in amongst the Java development community over the weekend, as Apple announced that they were “de-emphasizing” Java on the Mac OS. Being the Big Java Geek that I am, I thought I’d weigh in on this. Let the pundits speak But first, let’s see what the actual news reports said: As of the release of Java for Mac OS X 10.6 Update 3, the Java runtime ported by Apple and that ships with Mac OS X is deprecated.

VMWare help

Hey, anybody who’s got significant VMWare mojo, help out a bro? I’ve got a Win7 VM (one of many) that appears to be exhibiting weird disk behavior—the vmdk, a growable single-file VMDK, is almost precisely twice the used space. It’s a 120GB growable disk, and the Win7 guest reports about 35GB used, but the VMDK takes about 70GB on host disk. CHKDSK inside Windows says everything’s good, and the VMWare “Disk Cleanup” doesn’t change anything, either.

A well-done "movie trailer"

The JavaZone conference has just become one of my favorite conferences, EVAH. Check out this trailer they put together, entitled "Java 4-Ever". Yes, Microsofties, you should watch, too. Just leave off the evangelism for a moment and enjoy the humor of it. You've had your own fun over the years, too, or need I remind you of the Matrix video with Gates and Ballmer and the blue pill/red pill? ;-) This video brings several things to mind: Wow, that's well done.

Architectural Katas

By now, the Twitter messages have spread, and the word is out: at Uberconf this year, I did a session ("Pragmatic Architecture"), which I've done at other venues before, but this time we made it into a 180-minute workshop instead of a 90-minute session, and the workshop included breaking the room up into small (10-ish, which was still a teensy bit too big) groups and giving each one an "architectural kata" to work on.

10 Things To Improve Your Development Career

Cruising the Web late last night, I ran across "10 things you can do to advance your career as a developer", summarized below: Build a PC Participate in an online forum and help others Man the help desk Perform field service Perform DBA functions Perform all phases of the project lifecycle Recognize and learn the latest technologies Be an independent contractor Lead a project, supervise, or manage Seek additional education I agreed with some of them, I disagreed with others, and in general felt like they were a little too high-level to be of real use.

2010 Predictions, 2009 Predictions Revisited

Here we go again—another year, another set of predictions revisited and offered up for the next 12 months. And maybe, if I'm feeling really ambitious, I'll take that shot I thought about last year and try predicting for the decade. Without further ado, I'll go back and revisit, unedited, my predictions for 2009 ("THEN"), and pontificate on those subjects for 2010 before adding any new material/topics. Just for convenience, here's a link back to last years' predictions.

Thoughts from the (Java)Edge 2009

These are the things I think as I sit here in my resort hotel on the edge of the Dead Sea in Israel after the JavaEdge 2009 conference on Thursday: The JavaEdge hosts (Alpha CSP) are, without a doubt, the most gracious hosts I think I've ever had at a conference. And considering the wonderful treatment I've had at the hands of the 4Developers and JDD hosts in Krakow (Proidea) and the SDN hosts in Amsterdam, this is saying a lot.

Haacked, but not content; agile still treats the disease

Phil Haack wrote a thoughtful, insightful and absolutely correct response to my earlier blog post. But he's still missing the point. The short version: Phil's right when he says, "Agile is less about managing the complexity of an application itself and more about managing the complexity of building an application." Agile is by far the best approach to take when building complex software. But that's not where I'm going with this.

"Agile is treating the symptoms, not the disease"

The above quote was tossed off by Billy Hollis at the patterns&practices Summit this week in Redmond. I passed the quote out to the Twitter masses, along with my +1, and predictably, the comments started coming in shortly thereafter. Rather than limit the thoughts to the 120 or so characters that Twitter limits us to, I thought this subject deserved some greater expansion. But before I do, let me try (badly) to paraphrase the lightning talk that Billy gave here, which sets context for the discussion: Keeping track of all the stuff Microsoft is releasing is hard work: LINQ, EF, Silverlight, ASP.NET MVC, Enterprise Library, Azure, Prism, Sparkle, MEF, WCF, WF, WPF, InfoCard, CardSpace, the list goes on and on, and frankly, nobody (and I mean nobody) can track it all.

Jon Skeet, you will always be an MVP

Jon Skeet, noted C# MVP, has been asked by his employer to reject his MVP award this year. I have two reactions: I think it's an awkward situation when an employer hires somebody who is as deeply involved in a technology space as Jon is, then asks them to take actions that will deliberately distance them from that technology space. It strikes me as a waste of Jon's investment into the space, and a poor choice of actions.

More on journalistic integrity: Sys-Con, Ulitzer, theft and libel

Recently, an email crossed my Inbox from a friend who was concerned about some questionable practices involving my content (as well as a few others'); apparently, I have been listed as an "author" for SysCon, I have a "domain" with them, and that I've been writing for them since 10 January, 2003, including two articles, "Effective Enterprise Java" and "Java/.NET Interoperability". Given that both of those "articles" are summaries from presentations I've done at conferences past, I'm a touch skeptical.

What is "news", and what is "unethical"?

This post from TechCrunch crossed my attention inbox today, and I find myself quite flummoxed on the subject of how I think I should react. Assume you have managed, through no overt work on your part (meaning, you didn't explicitly solicit, ask, or otherwise endeavor to obtain), to get ownership of "hundreds of confidential corporate and personal documents" for a company. Assume further that these documents are genuine—there is little to no chance that they could have been forged or fabricated.


The "controversy" continues

Apparently the Rails community isn't the only one pursuing that ephemeral goal of "edginess"—another blatantly sexist presentation came off without a hitch, this time at a Flash conference, and if anything, it was worse than the Rails/CouchDB presentation. I excerpt a few choice tidbits from an eyewitness here, but be warned—if you're not comfortable with language, skip the next block paragraph. Yesterday's afternoon keynote is this guy named Hoss Gifford — I believe his major claim to fame is that viral "spank the monkey" thing that went around a few years back.  Highlights of his talk: He opens his keynote with one of those "Ignite"-esque presentations — where you have 5-minutes and 20 slides to tell a story — and the first and last are a close-up of a woman's lower half, her legs spread (wearing stilettos, of course) and her shaved vagina visible through some see-thru panties that say "drink me," with Hoss's Photoshopped, upward-looking face placed below it.

On speaking, trolling, inciting and growing

It's been going around in developer circles now for a few days, this whole controversy about the "Perform like a pr0n star" presentation from the Golden Gate Ruby Conference and the related accusations of misogyny and sexism and overblown accusations and double-standardisms and what-all else, and I've deliberately waited to let opinions in my head settle out before blogging on the whole thing. Sara J Chipps reacts on her blog, and the comments to her comments are also somewhat...

Out, out, you damn foreigners!

A friend of mine, from Canada, recently decided not to come to the US anymore. Today was my final time trying to enter the US to do what many other people have done in my industry before: go and speak at a conference. The reason I was given this time was that although I had forfeit the speaking fee they were going to pay me, I was still going to be speaking at a conference where other speakers were getting paid, and that there was no reason an American couldn’t fill that spot.



Seattle/Redmond/Bellevue Nerd Dinner

From Scott Hanselman's blog: Are you in King County/Seattle/Redmond/Bellevue Washington and surrounding areas? Are you a huge nerd? Perhaps a geek? No? Maybe a dork, dweeb or wonk. Maybe you're in town for an SDR (Software Design Review) visiting BillG. Quite possibly you're just a normal person. Regardless, why not join us for some Mall Food at the Crossroads Bellevue Mall Food Court on Monday, January 19th around 6:30pm? ... NOTE: RSVP by leaving a comment here and show up on January 19th at 6:30pm!

I need a social life

I realized, I'm sitting here in Canyon's (in Redmond), with two laptops plugged into the wall and the WiFi, playing with PDC bits. It's a Saturday night, for cryin' out loud. Please, any Redmondites, Kirklannish, or Bellvuevians, rescue me. Where do the cool people hang out in Eastside?

Does this get an "A" on the Turing test, then?

From wikipedia: The Turing test is a proposal for a test of a machine's capability to demonstrate intelligence. Described by Alan Turing in the 1950 paper "Computing machinery and intelligence," it proceeds as follows: a human judge engages in a natural language conversation with one human and one machine, each of which try to appear human; if the judge cannot reliably tell which is which, then the machine is said to pass the test.