Hey, anybody who’s got significant VMWare mojo, help out a bro?

I’ve got a Win7 VM (one of many) that appears to be exhibiting weird disk behavior—the vmdk, a growable single-file VMDK, is almost precisely twice the used space. It’s a 120GB growable disk, and the Win7 guest reports about 35GB used, but the VMDK takes about 70GB on host disk. CHKDSK inside Windows says everything’s good, and the VMWare “Disk Cleanup” doesn’t change anything, either. It doesn’t seem to be a Windows7 thing, because I’ve got a half-dozen other Win7 VMs that operate… well, normally (by which I mean, 30GB used in the VMDK means 30GB used on disk). It’s a VMWare Fusion host, if that makes any difference. Any other details that might be relevant, let me know and I’ll post.

Anybody got any ideas what the heck is going on inside this disk?

By now, the Twitter messages have spread, and the word is out: at Uberconf this year, I did a session ("Pragmatic Architecture"), which I've done at other venues before, but this time we made it into a 180-minute workshop instead of a 90-minute session, and the workshop included breaking the room up into small (10-ish, which was still a teensy bit too big) groups and giving each one an "architectural kata" to work on.

The architectural kata is a take on PragDave's coding kata, except taken to a higher level: the architectural kata is an exercise in which the group seeks to create an architecture to solve the problem presented. The inspiration for this came from Frederick Brooks' latest book, The Design of Design, in which he points out that the only way to get great designers is to get them to design. The corollary, of course, is that in order to create great architects, we have to get them to architect. But few architects get a chance to architect a system more than a half-dozen times or so over the lifetime of a career, and that's only for those who are fortunate to be given the opportunity to architect in the first place. Of course, the problem here is, you have to be an architect in order to get hired as an architect, but if you're not an architect, then how can you architect in order to become an architect?

Um... hang on, let me make sure I wrote that right.

Anyway, the "rules" around the kata (which makes it more difficult to consume the kata but makes the scenario more realistic, IMHO):

• you may ask the instructor questions about the project
• you must be prepared to present a rough architectural vision of the project and defend questions about it
• you must be prepared to ask questions of other participants' presentations
• you may safely make assumptions about technologies you don't know well as long as those assumptions are clearly defined and spelled out
• you may not assume you have hiring/firing authority over the development team
• any technology is fair game (but you must justify its use)
• any other rules, you may ask about

The groups were given 30 minutes in which to formulate some ideas, and then three of them were given a few minutes to present their ideas and defend it against some questions from the crowd.

An example kata is below:

Architectural Kata #5: I'll have the BLT

a national sandwich shop wants to enable "fax in your order" but over the Internet instead

users: millions+

requirements: users will place their order, then be given a time to pick up their sandwich and directions to the shop (which must integrate with Google Maps); if the shop offers a delivery service, dispatch the driver with the sandwich to the user; mobile-device accessibility; offer national daily promotionals/specials; offer local daily promotionals/specials; accept payment online or in person/on delivery

As you can tell, it's vague in some ways, and this is somewhat deliberate—as one group discovered, part of the architect's job is to ask questions of the project champion (me), and they didn't, and felt like they failed pretty miserably. (In their defense, the kata they drew—randomly—was pretty much universally thought to be the hardest of the lot.) But overall, the exercise was well-received, lots of people found it a great opportunity to try being an architect, and even the team that failed felt that it was a valuable exercise.

I'm definitely going to do more of these, and refine the whole thing a little. (Thanks to everyone who participated and gave me great feedback on how to make it better.) If you're interested in having it done as a practice exercise for your development team before the start of a big project, ping me. I think this would be a *great* exercise to do during a user group meeting, too.

Code Katas are small, relatively simple exercises designed to give you a problem to try and solve. I like to use them as a way to get my feet wet and help write something more interesting than "Hello World" but less complicated than "The Internet's Next Killer App".

This one is from the UVa online programming contest judge system, which I discovered after picking up the book Programming Challenges, which is highly recommended as a source of code katas, by the way. Much of the advice parts of the book can be skimmed or ignored by the long-time professional developer, but it's still worth a read, since it can be an interesting source of ideas and approaches when solving real-world scenarios.

Problem: You work for a manufacturing company, and they have just received their newest piece of super-modern hardware, a highly efficient assembly-line mechanized pneumatic item manipulator, also known in some circles as a "robotic arm". It is driven by a series of commands, and your job is to write the software to drive the arm. The initial test will be to have the arm move a series of blocks around.

Context: The test begins with n number of blocks, laid out sequentially next to each other, each block with a number on it. (You may safely assume that n never exceeds 25.) So, if n is 4, then the blocks are laid out (starting from 0) as:

0: 0

1: 1

2: 2

3: 3

The display output here is the block-numbered "slot", then a colon, then the block(s) that are stacked in that slot, lowest to highest in left to right order. Thus, in the following display:

0:

1:

2: 0 1 2 3

3:

The 3 block is stacked on top of the 2 block is stacked on top of the 1 block is stacked on top of the 0 block, all in slot 2. This can be shortened to the representation [0:, 1:, 2: 0 1 2 3, 3:] for conciseness.

The arm understands a number of different commands, as well as an optic sensor. (Yeah, the guys who created the arm were good enough to write code that knows how to read the number off a block, but not to actually drive the arm. Go figure.) The commands are as follows, where a and b are valid block numbers (meaning they are between 0 and n-1):

• "move a onto b" This command orders the arm to find block a, and return any blocks stacked on top of it to their original position. Do the same for block b, then stack block a on top of b.
• "move a over b" This command orders the arm to find block a, and return any blocks stacked on top of it to their original position. Then stack block a on top of the stack of blocks containing b.
• "pile a onto b" This command orders the arm to find the stack of blocks containing block b, and return any blocks stacked on top of it to their original position. Then the arm must find the stack of blocks containing block a, and take the stack of blocks starting from a on upwards (in other words, don't do anything with any blocks on top of a) and put that stack on top of block b.
• "pile a over b" This command orders the arm to find the stack of blocks containing block a and take the stack of blocks starting from a on upwards (in other words, don't do anything with any blocks on top of a) and put that stack on top of the stack of blocks containing block b (in other words, don't do anything with the stack of blocks containing b, either).
• "quit" This command tells the arm to shut down (and thus terminates the simulation).

Note that if the input command sequence accidentally offers a command where a and b are the same value, that command is illegal and should be ignored.

As an example, then, if we have 4 blocks in the state [0: 0, 1: 1, 2: 2, 3: 3], and run a "move 2 onto 3", we get [0: 0, 1: 1, 2:, 3: 3 2]. If we then run a "pile 3 over 1", we should end up with [0: 0, 1: 1 3 2, 2:, 3:]. And so on.

Input: n = 10. Run these commands:

1. move 9 onto 1
2. move 8 over 1
3. move 7 over 1
4. move 6 over 1
5. pile 8 over 6
6. pile 8 over 5
7. move 2 over 1
8. move 4 over 9
9. quit

The result should be [0: 0, 1: 1 9 2 4, 2:, 3: 3, 4:, 5: 5 8 7 6, 6:, 7:, 8:, 9:]

Challenges:

• Implement the Towers of Hanoi (or as close to it as you can get) using this system.
• Add an optimizer to the arm, in essence reading in the entire program (up to "quit"), finding shorter paths and/or different commands to achieve the same result.
• Add a visual component to the simulation, displaying the arm as it moves over each block and moves blocks around.
• Add another robotic arm, and allow commands to be given simultaneously. This will require some thought—does each arm execute a complete command before allowing the other arm to execute (which reduces the performance having two arms might offer), or can each arm act entirely independently? The two (or more) arms will probably need separate command streams, but you might try running them with one command stream just for grins. Note that deciding how to synchronized the arms so they don't conflict with one another will probably require adding some kind of synchronization instructions into the stream as well.

Cruising the Web late last night, I ran across "10 things you can do to advance your career as a developer", summarized below:

1. Build a PC
2. Participate in an online forum and help others
3. Man the help desk
4. Perform field service
5. Perform DBA functions
6. Perform all phases of the project lifecycle
7. Recognize and learn the latest technologies
8. Be an independent contractor
9. Lead a project, supervise, or manage
10. Seek additional education

I agreed with some of them, I disagreed with others, and in general felt like they were a little too high-level to be of real use. For example, "Seek additional education" seems entirely too vague: In what? How much? How often? And "Recognize and learn the latest technologies" is something like offering advice to the Olympic fencing silver medalist and saying, "You should have tried harder".

So, in the great spirit of "Not Invented Here", I present my own list; as usual, I welcome comment and argument. And, also as usual, caveats apply, since not everybody will be in precisely the same place and be looking for the same things. In general, though, whether you're looking to kick-start your career or just "kick it up a notch", I believe this list will help, because these ideas have been of help to me at some point or another in my own career.

10: Build a PC.

Yes, even developers have to know about hardware. More importantly, a developer at a small organization or team will find himself in a position where he has to take on some system administrator roles, and sometimes that means grabbing a screwdriver, getting a little dusty and dirty, and swapping hardware around. Having said this, though, once you've done it once or twice, leave it alone—the hardware game is an ever-shifting and ever-changing game (much like software is, surprise surprise), and it's been my experience that most of us only really have the time to pursue one or the other.

By the way, "PC" there is something of a generic term—build a Linux box, build a Windows box, or "build" a Mac OS box (meaning, buy a Mac Pro and trick it out a little—add more memory, add another hard drive, and so on), they all get you comfortable with snapping parts together, and discovering just how ridiculously simple the whole thing really is.

And for the record, once you've done it, go ahead and go back to buying pre-built systems or laptops—I've never found building a PC to be any cheaper than buying one pre-built. Particularly for PC systems, I prefer to use smaller local vendors where I can customize and trick out the box. If you're a Mac, that's not really an option unless you're into the "Hackintosh" thing, which is quite possibly the logical equivalent to "Build a PC". Having never done it myself, though, I can't say how useful that is as an educational action.

9: Pick a destination

Do you want to run a team of your own? Become an independent contractor? Teach programming classes? Speak at conferences? Move up into higher management and get out of the programming game altogether? Everybody's got a different idea of what they consider to be the "ideal" career, but it's amazing how many people don't really think about what they want their career path to be.

A wise man once said, "The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step." I disagree: The journey of a thousand miles begins with the damn map. You have to know where you want to go, and a rough idea of how to get there, before you can really start with that single step. Otherwise, you're just wandering, which in itself isn't a bad thing, but isn't going to get you to a destination except by random chance. (Sometimes that's not a bad result, but at least then you're openly admitting that you're leaving your career in the hands of chance. If you're OK with that, skip to the next item. If you're not, read on.)

Lay out explicitly (as in, write it down someplace) what kind of job you're wanting to grow into, and then lay out a couple of scenarios that move you closer towards that goal. Can you grow within the company you're in? (Have others been able to?) Do you need to quit and strike out on your own? Do you want to lead a team of your own? (Are there new projects coming in to the company that you could put yourself forward as a potential tech lead?) And so on.

Once you've identified the destination, now you can start thinking about steps to get there.

If you want to become a speaker, put your name forward to give some presentations at the local technology user group, or volunteer to hold a "brown bag" session at the company. Sign up with Toastmasters to hone your speaking technique. Watch other speakers give technical talks, and see what they do that you don't, and vice versa.

If you want to be a tech lead, start by quietly assisting other members of the team get their work done. Help them debug thorny problems. Answer questions they have. Offer yourself up as a resource for dealing with hard problems.

If you want to slowly move up the management chain, look to get into the project management side of things. Offer to be a point of contact for the users. Learn the business better. Sit down next to one of your users and watch their interaction with the existing software, and try to see the system from their point of view.

And so on.

8: Be a bell curve

Frequently, at conferences, attendees ask me how I got to know so much on so many things. In some ways, I'm reminded of the story of a world-famous concert pianist giving a concert at Carnegie Hall—when a gushing fan said, "I'd give my life to be able to play like that", the pianist responded quietly, "I did". But as much as I'd like to leave you with the impression that I've dedicated my entire life to knowing everything I could about this industry, that would be something of a lie. The truth is, I don't know anywhere near as much as I'd like, and I'm always poking my head into new areas. Thank God for my ADD, that's all I can say on that one.

For the rest of you, though, that's not feasible, and not really practical, particularly since I have an advantage that the "working" programmer doesn't—I have set aside weeks or months in which to do nothing more than study a new technology or language.

Back in the early days of my career, though, when I was holding down the 9-to-5, I was a Windows/C++ programmer. I was working with the Borland C++ compiler and its associated framework, the ObjectWindows Library (OWL), extending and maintaining applications written in it. One contracting client wanted me to work with Microsoft MFC instead of OWL. Another one was storing data into a relational database using ODBC. And so on. Slowly, over time, I built up a "bell curve"-looking collection of skills that sort of "hovered" around the central position of C++/Windows.

Then, one day, a buddy of mine mentioned the team on which he was a project manager was looking for new blood. They were doing web applications, something with which I had zero experience—this was completely outside of my bell curve. HTML, HTTP, Cold Fusion, NetDynamics (an early Java app server), this was way out of my range, though at least NetDynamics was a little similar, since it was basically a server-side application framework, and I had some experience with app frameworks from my C++ days. So, resting on my C++ experience, I started flirting with Java, and so on.

Before long, my "bell curve" had been readjusted to have Java more or less at its center, and I found that experience in C++ still worked out here—what I knew about ODBC turned out to be incredibly useful in understanding JDBC, what I knew about DLLs from Windows turned out to be helpful in understanding Java's dynamic loading model, and of course syntactically Java looked a lot like C++ even though it behaved a little bit differently under the hood. (One article author suggested that Java was closer to Smalltalk than C++, and that prompted me to briefly flirt with Smalltalk before I concluded said author was out of his frakking mind.)

All of this happened over roughly a three-year period, by the way.

The point here is that you won't be able to assimilate the entire industry in a single sitting, so pick something that's relatively close to what you already know, and use your experience as a springboard to learn something that's new, yet possibly-if-not-probably useful to your current job. You don't have to be a deep expert in it, and the further away it is from what you do, the less you really need to know about it (hence the bell curve metaphor), but you're still exposing yourself to new ideas and new concepts and new tools/technologies that still could be applicable to what you do on a daily basis. Over time the "center" of your bell curve may drift away from what you've done to include new things, and that's OK.

7: Learn one new thing every year

In the last tip, I told you to branch out slowly from what you know. In this tip, I'm telling you to go throw a dart at something entirely unfamiliar to you and learn it. Yes, I realize this sounds contradictory. It's because those who stick to only what they know end up missing the radical shifts of direction that the industry hits every half-decade or so until it's mainstream and commonplace and "everybody's doing it".

In their amazing book "The Pragmatic Programmer", Dave Thomas and Andy Hunt suggest that you learn one new programming language every year. I'm going to amend that somewhat—not because there aren't enough languages in the world to keep you on that pace for the rest of your life—far from it, if that's what you want, go learn Ruby, F#, Scala, Groovy, Clojure, Icon, Io, Erlang, Haskell and Smalltalk, then come back to me for the list for 2020—but because languages aren't the only thing that we as developers need to explore. There's a lot of movement going on in areas beyond languages, and you don't want to be the last kid on the block to know they're happening.

Consider this list: object databases (db4o) and/or the "NoSQL" movement (MongoDB). Dependency injection and composable architectures (Spring, MEF). A dynamic language (Ruby, Python, ECMAScript). A functional language (F#, Scala, Haskell). A Lisp (Common Lisp, Clojure, Scheme, Nu). A mobile platform (iPhone, Android). "Space"-based architecture (Gigaspaces, Terracotta). Rich UI platforms (Flash/Flex, Silverlight). Browser enhancements (AJAX, jQuery, HTML 5) and how they're different from the rich UI platforms. And this is without adding any of the "obvious" stuff, like Cloud, to the list.

(I'm not convinced Cloud is something worth learning this year, anyway.)

You get through that list, you're operating outside of your comfort zone, and chances are, your boss' comfort zone, which puts you into the enviable position of being somebody who can advise him around those technologies. DO NOT TAKE THIS TO MEAN YOU MUST KNOW THEM DEEPLY. Just having a passing familiarity with them can be enough. DO NOT TAKE THIS TO MEAN YOU SHOULD PROPOSE USING THEM ON THE NEXT PROJECT. In fact, sometimes the most compelling evidence that you really know where and when they should be used is when you suggest stealing ideas from the thing, rather than trying to force-fit the thing onto the project as a whole.

6: Practice, practice, practice

Speaking of the concert pianist, somebody once asked him how to get to Carnegie Hall. HIs answer: "Practice, my boy, practice."

The same is true here. You're not going to get to be a better developer without practice. Volunteer some time—even if it's just an hour a week—on an open-source project, or start one of your own. Heck, it doesn't even have to be an "open source" project—just create some requirements of your own, solve a problem that a family member is having, or rewrite the project you're on as an interesting side-project. Do the Nike thing and "Just do it". Write some Scala code. Write some F# code. Once you're past "hello world", write the Scala code to use db4o as a persistent storage. Wire it up behind Tapestry. Or write straight servlets in Scala. And so on.

5: Turn off the TV

Speaking of marketing slogans, if you're like most Americans, surveys have shown that you watch about four hours of TV a day, or 28 hours of TV a week. In that same amount of time (28 hours over 1 week), you could read the entire set of poems by Maya Angelou, one F. Scott Fitzgerald novel, all poems by T.S.Eliot, 2 plays by Thornton Wilder, or all 150 Psalms of the Bible. An average reader, reading just one hour a day, can finish an "average-sized" book (let's assume about the size of a novel) in a week, which translates to 52 books a year.

Let's assume a technical book is going to take slightly longer, since it's a bit deeper in concept and requires you to spend some time experimenting and typing in code; let's assume that reading and going through the exercises of an average technical book will require 4 weeks (a month) instead of just one week. That's 12 new tools/languages/frameworks/ideas you'd be learning per year.

All because you stopped watching David Caruso turn to the camera, whip his sunglasses off and say something stupid. (I guess it's not his fault; CSI:Miami is a crap show. The other two are actually not bad, but Miami just makes me retch.)

After all, when's the last time that David Caruso or the rest of that show did anything that was even remotely realistic from a computer perspective? (I always laugh out loud every time they run a database search against some national database on a completely non-indexable criteria—like a partial license plate number—and it comes back in seconds. What the hell database are THEY using? I want it!) Soon as you hear The Who break into that riff, flip off the TV (or set it to mute) and pick up the book on the nightstand and boost your career. (And hopefully sink Caruso's.)

Or, if you just can't give up your weekly dose of Caruso, then put the book in the bathroom. Think about it—how much time do you spend in there a week?

And this gets even better when you get a Kindle or other e-reader that accepts PDFs, or the book you're interested in is natively supported in the e-readers' format. Now you have it with you for lunch, waiting at dinner for your food to arrive, or while you're sitting guard on your 10-year-old so he doesn't sneak out of his room after his bedtime to play more XBox.

4: Have a life

Speaking of XBox, don't slave your life to work. Pursue other things. Scientists have repeatedly discovered that exercise helps keep the mind in shape, so take a couple of hours a week (buh-bye, American Idol) and go get some exercise. Pick up a new sport you've never played before, or just go work out at the gym. (This year I'm doing Hopkido and fencing.) Read some nontechnical books. (I recommend anything by Malcolm Gladwell as a starting point.) Spend time with your family, if you have one—mine spends at least six or seven hours a week playing "family games" like Settlers of Catan, Dominion, To Court The King, Munchkin, and other non-traditional games, usually over lunch or dinner. I also belong to an informal "Game Night club" in Redmond consisting of several Microsoft employees and their families, as well as outsiders. And so on. Heck, go to a local bar and watch the game, and you'll meet some really interesting people. And some boring people, too, but you don't have to talk to them during the next game if you don't want.

This isn't just about maintaining a healthy work-life balance—it's also about having interests that other people can latch on to, qualities that will make you more "human" and more interesting as a person, and make you more attractive and "connectable" and stand out better in their mind when they hear that somebody they know is looking for a software developer. This will also help you connect better with your users, because like it or not, they do not get your puns involving Klingon. (Besides, the geek stereotype is SO 90's, and it's time we let the world know that.)

Besides, you never know when having some depth in other areas—philosophy, music, art, physics, sports, whatever—will help you create an analogy that will explain some thorny computer science concept to a non-technical person and get past a communication roadblock.

3: Practice on a cadaver

Long before they scrub up for their first surgery on a human, medical students practice on dead bodies. It's grisly, it's not something we really want to think about, but when you're the one going under the general anesthesia, would you rather see the surgeon flipping through the "How-To" manual, "just to refresh himself"?

Diagnosing and debugging a software system can be a hugely puzzling trial, largely because there are so many possible "moving parts" that are creating the problem. Compound that with certain bugs that only appear when multiple users are interacting at the same time, and you've got a recipe for disaster when a production bug suddenly threatens to jeopardize the company's online revenue stream. Do you really want to be sitting in the production center, flipping through "How-To"'s and FAQs online while your boss looks on and your CEO is counting every minute by the thousands of dollars?

Take a tip from the med student: long before the thing goes into production, introduce a bug, deploy the code into a virtual machine, then hand it over to a buddy and let him try to track it down. Have him do the same for you. Or if you can't find a buddy to help you, do it to yourself (but try not to cheat or let your knowledge of where the bug is color your reactions). How do you know the bug is there? Once you know it's there, how do you determine what kind of bug it is? Where do you start looking for it? How would you track it down without attaching a debugger or otherwise disrupting the system's operations? (Remember, we can't always just attach an IDE and step through the code on a production server.) How do you patch the running system? And so on.

Remember, you can either learn these things under controlled circumstances, learn them while you're in the "hot seat", so to speak, or not learn them at all and see how long the company keeps you around.

2: Administer the system

Take off your developer hat for a while—a week, a month, a quarter, whatever—and be one of those thankless folks who have to keep the system running. Wear the pager that goes off at 3AM when a server goes down. Stay all night doing one of those "server upgrades" that have to be done in the middle of the night because the system can't be upgraded while users are using it. Answer the phones or chat requests of those hapless users who can't figure out why they can't find the record they just entered into the system, and after a half-hour of thinking it must be a bug, ask them if they remembered to check the "Save this record" checkbox on the UI (which had to be there because the developers were told it had to be there) before submitting the form. Try adding a user. Try removing a user. Try changing the user's password. Learn what a real joy having seven different properties/XML/configuration files scattered all over the system really is.

Once you've done that, particularly on a system that you built and tossed over the fence into production and thought that was the end of it, you'll understand just why it's so important to keep the system administrators in mind when you're building a system for production. And why it's critical to be able to have a system that tells you when it's down, instead of having to go hunting up the answer when a VP tells you it is (usually because he's just gotten an outage message from a customer or client).

1: Cultivate a peer group

Yes, you can join an online forum, ask questions, answer questions, and learn that way, but that's a poor substitute for physical human contact once in a while. Like it or not, various sociological and psychological studies confirm that a "connection" is really still best made when eyeballs meet flesh. (The "disassociative" nature of email is what makes it so easy to be rude or flamboyant or downright violent in email when we would never say such things in person.) Go to conferences, join a user group, even start one of your own if you can't find one. Yes, the online avenues are still open to you—read blogs, join mailing lists or newsgroups—but don't lose sight of human-to-human contact.

While we're at it, don't create a peer group of people that all look to you for answers—as flattering as that feels, and as much as we do learn by providing answers, frequently we rise (or fall) to the level of our peers—have at least one peer group that's overwhelmingly smarter than you, and as scary as it might be, venture to offer an answer or two to that group when a question comes up. You don't have to be right—in fact, it's often vastly more educational to be wrong. Just maintain an attitude that says "I have no ego wrapped up in being right or wrong", and take the entire experience as a learning opportunity.

Here we go again—another year, another set of predictions revisited and offered up for the next 12 months. And maybe, if I'm feeling really ambitious, I'll take that shot I thought about last year and try predicting for the decade. Without further ado, I'll go back and revisit, unedited, my predictions for 2009 ("THEN"), and pontificate on those subjects for 2010 before adding any new material/topics. Just for convenience, here's a link back to last years' predictions.

Last year's predictions went something like this (complete with basketball-scoring):

• THEN: "Cloud" will become the next "ESB" or "SOA", in that it will be something that everybody will talk about, but few will understand and even fewer will do anything with. (Considering the widespread disparity in the definition of the term, this seems like a no-brainer.) NOW: Oh, yeah. Straight up. I get two points for this one. Does anyone have a working definition of "cloud" that applies to all of the major vendors' implementations? Ted, 2; Wrongness, 0.
• THEN: Interest in Scala will continue to rise, as will the number of detractors who point out that Scala is too hard to learn. NOW: Two points for this one, too. Not a hard one, mind you, but one of those "pass-and-shoot" jumpers from twelve feet out. James Strachan even tweeted about this earlier today, pointing out this comparison. As more Java developers who think of themselves as smart people try to pick up Scala and fail, the numbers of sour grapes responses like "Scala's too complex, and who needs that functional stuff anyway?" will continue to rise in 2010. Ted, 4; Wrongness, 0.
• THEN: Interest in F# will continue to rise, as will the number of detractors who point out that F# is too hard to learn. (Hey, the two really are cousins, and the fortunes of one will serve as a pretty good indication of the fortunes of the other, and both really seem to be on the same arc right now.) NOW: Interestingly enough, I haven't heard as many F# detractors as Scala detractors, possibly because I think F# hasn't really reached the masses of .NET developers the way that Scala has managed to find its way in front of Java developers. I think that'll change mighty quickly in 2010, though, once VS 2010 hits the streets. Ted, 4; Wrongness 2.
• THEN : Interest in all kinds of functional languages will continue to rise, and more than one person will take a hint from Bob "crazybob" Lee and liken functional programming to AOP, for good and for ill. People who took classes on Haskell in college will find themselves reaching for their old college textbooks again. NOW: Yep, I'm claiming two points on this one, if only because a bunch of Haskell books shipped this year, and they'll be the last to do so for about five years after this. (By the way, does anybody still remember aspects?) But I'm going the opposite way with this one now; yes, there's Haskell, and yes, there's Erlang, and yes, there's a lot of other functional languages out there, but who cares? They're hard to learn, they don't always translate well to other languages, and developers want languages that work on the platform they use on a daily basis, and that means F# and Scala or Clojure, or its simply not an option. Ted 6; Wrongness 2.
• THEN : The iPhone is going to be hailed as "the enterprise development platform of the future", and companies will be rolling out apps to it. Look for Quicken iPhone edition, PowerPoint and/or Keynote iPhone edition, along with connectors to hook the iPhone up to a presentation device, and (I'll bet) a World of Warcraft iPhone client (legit or otherwise). iPhone is the new hotness in the mobile space, and people will flock to it madly. NOW: Two more points, but let's be honest—this was a fast-break layup, no work required on my part. Ted 8; Wrongness 2.
• THEN: Another Oslo CTP will come out, and it will bear only a superficial resemblance to the one that came out in October at PDC. Betting on Oslo right now is a fools' bet, not because of any inherent weakness in the technology, but just because it's way too early in the cycle to be thinking about for anything vaguely resembling production code. NOW: If you've worked at all with Oslo, you might argue with me, but I'm still taking my two points. The two CTPs were pretty different in a number of ways. Ted 10; Wrongness 2.
• THEN: The IronPython and IronRuby teams will find some serious versioning issues as they try to manage the DLR versioning story between themselves and the CLR as a whole. An initial hack will result, which will be codified into a standard practice when .NET 4.0 ships. Then the next release of IPy or IRb will have to try and slip around its restrictions in 2010/2011. By 2012, IPy and IRb will have to be shipping as part of Visual Studio just to put the releases back into lockstep with one another (and the rest of the .NET universe). NOW: Pressure is still building. Let's see what happens by the time VS 2010 ships, and then see what the IPy/IRb teams start to do to adjust to the versioning issues that arise. Ted 8; Wrongness 2.
• THEN: The death of JSR-277 will spark an uprising among the two leading groups hoping to foist it off on the Java community--OSGi and Maven--while the rest of the Java world will breathe a huge sigh of relief and look to see what "modularity" means in Java 7. Some of the alpha geeks in Java will start using--if not building--JDK 7 builds just to get a heads-up on its impact, and be quietly surprised and, I dare say, perhaps even pleased. NOW: Ah, Ted, you really should never underestimate the community's willingness to take a bad idea, strip all the goodness out of it, and then cycle it back into the mix as something completely different yet somehow just as dangerous and crazy. I give you Project Jigsaw. Ted 10; Wrongness 2;
• THEN: The invokedynamic JSR will leapfrog in importance to the top of the list. NOW: The invokedynamic JSR begat interest in other languages on the JVM. The interest in other languages on the JVM begat the need to start thinking about how to support them in the Java libraries. The need to start thinking about supporting those languages begat a "Holy sh*t moment" somewhere inside Sun and led them to (re-)propose closures for JDK 7. And in local sports news, Ted notched up two more points on the scoreboard. Ted 12; Wrongness 2.
• THEN: Another Windows 7 CTP will come out, and it will spawn huge media interest that will eventually be remembered as Microsoft promises, that will eventually be remembered as Microsoft guarantees, that will eventually be remembered as Microsoft FUD and "promising much, delivering little". Microsoft ain't always at fault for the inflated expectations people have--sometimes, yes, perhaps even a lot of times, but not always. NOW: And then, just when the game started to turn into a runaway, airballs started to fly. The Windows7 release shipped, and contrary to what I expected, the general response to it was pretty warm. Yes, there were a few issues that emerged, but overall the media liked it, the masses liked it, and Microsoft seemed to have dodged a bullet. Ted 12; Wrongness 5.
• THEN: Apple will begin to legally threaten the clone market again, except this time somebody's going to get the DOJ involved. (Yes, this is the iPhone/iTunes prediction from last year, carrying over. I still expect this to happen.) NOW: What clones? The only people trying to clone Macs are those who are building Hackintosh machines, and Apple can't sue them so long as they're using licensed copies of Mac OS X (as far as I know). Which has never stopped them from trying, mind you, and I still think Steve has some part of his brain whispering to him at night, calculating all the hardware sales lost to Hackintosh netbooks out there. But in any event, that's another shot missed. Ted 12; Wrongness 7.
• THEN: Alpha-geek developers will start creating their own languages (even if they're obscure or bizarre ones like Shakespeare or Ook#) just to have that listed on their resume as the DSL/custom language buzz continues to build. NOW: I give you Ioke. If I'd extended this to include outdated CPU interpreters, I'd have made that three-pointer from half-court instead of just the top of the key. Ted 14; Wrongness 7.
• THEN: Roy Fielding will officially disown most of the "REST"ful authors and software packages available. Nobody will care--or worse, somebody looking to make a name for themselves will proclaim that Roy "doesn't really understand REST". And they'll be right--Roy doesn't understand what they consider to be REST, and the fact that he created the term will be of no importance anymore. Being "REST"ful will equate to "I did it myself!", complete with expectations of a gold star and a lollipop. NOW: Does anybody in the REST community care what Roy Fielding wrote way back when? I keep seeing "REST"ful systems that seem to have designers who've never heard of Roy, or his thesis. Roy hasn't officially disowned them, but damn if he doesn't seem close to it. Still.... No points. Ted 14; Wrongness 9.
• THEN: The Parrot guys will make at least one more minor point release. Nobody will notice or care, except for a few doggedly stubborn Perl hackers. They will find themselves having nightmares of previous lives carrying around OS/2 books and Amiga paraphernalia. Perl 6 will celebrate it's seventh... or is it eighth?... anniversary of being announced, and nobody will notice. NOW: Does anybody still follow Perl 6 development? Has the spec even been written yet? Google on "Perl 6 release", and you get varying reports: "It'll ship 'when it's ready'", "There are no such dates because this isn't a commericially-backed effort", and "Spring 2010". Swish—nothin' but net. Ted 16; Wrongness 9.
• THEN: The debate around "Scrum Certification" will rise to a fever pitch as short-sighted money-tight companies start looking for reasons to cut costs and either buy into agile at a superficial level and watch it fail, or start looking to cut the agilists from their company in order to replace them with cheaper labor. NOW: Agile has become another adjective meaning "best practices", and as such, has essentially lost its meaning. Just ask Scott Bellware. Ted 18; Wrongness 9.
• THEN: Adobe will continue to make Flex and AIR look more like C# and the CLR even as Microsoft tries to make Silverlight look more like Flash and AIR. Web designers will now get to experience the same fun that back-end web developers have enjoyed for near-on a decade, as shops begin to artificially partition themselves up as either "Flash" shops or "Silverlight" shops. NOW: Not sure how to score this one—I haven't seen the explicit partitioning happen yet, but the two environments definitely still seem to be looking to start tromping on each others' turf, particularly when we look at the rapid releases coming from the Silverlight team. Ted 16; Wrongness 11.
• THEN: Gartner will still come knocking, looking to hire me for outrageous sums of money to do nothing but blog and wax prophetic. NOW: Still no job offers. Damn. Ah, well. Ted 16; Wrongness 13.

A close game. Could've gone either way. *shrug* Ah, well. It was silly to try and score it in basketball metaphor, anyway—that's the last time I watch ESPN before writing this.

For 2010, I predict....

• ... I will offer 3- and 4-day training classes on F# and Scala, among other things. OK, that's not fair—yes, I have the materials, I just need to work out locations and times. Contact me if you're interested in a private class, by the way.
• ... I will publish two books, one on F# and one on Scala. OK, OK, another plug. Or, rather, more of a resolution. One will be the "Professional F#" I'm doing for Wiley/Wrox, the other isn't yet finalized. But it'll either be published through a publisher, or self-published, by JavaOne 2010.
• ... DSLs will either "succeed" this year, or begin the short slide into the dustbin of obscure programming ideas. Domain-specific language advocates have to put up some kind of strawman for developers to learn from and poke at, or the whole concept will just fade away. Martin's book will help, if it ships this year, but even that might not be enough to generate interest if it doesn't have some kind of large-scale applicability in it. Patterns and refactoring and enterprise containers all had a huge advantage in that developers could see pretty easily what the problem was they solved; DSLs haven't made that clear yet.
• ... functional languages will start to see a backlash. I hate to say it, but "getting" the functional mindset is hard, and there's precious few resources that are making it easy for mainstream (read: O-O) developers make that adjustment, far fewer than there was during the procedural-to-object shift. If the functional community doesn't want to become mainstream, then mainstream developers will find ways to take functional's most compelling gateway use-case (parallel/concurrent programming) and find a way to "git 'er done" in the traditional O-O approach, probably through software transactional memory, and functional languages like Haskell and Erlang will be relegated to the "What Might Have Been" of computer science history. Not sure what I mean? Try this: walk into a functional language forum, and ask what a monad is. Nobody yet has been able to produce an answer that doesn't involve math theory, or that does involve a practical domain-object-based example. In fact, nobody has really said why (or if) monads are even still useful. Or catamorphisms. Or any of the other dime-store words that the functional community likes to toss around.
• ... Visual Studio 2010 will ship on time, and be one of the buggiest and/or slowest releases in its history. I hate to make this prediction, because I really don't want to be right, but there's just so much happening in the Visual Studio refactoring effort that it makes me incredibly nervous. Widespread adoption of VS2010 will wait until SP1 at the earliest. In fact....
• ... Visual Studio 2010 SP 1 will ship within three months of the final product. Microsoft knows that people wait until SP 1 to think about upgrading, so they'll just plan for an eager SP 1 release, and hope that managers will be too hung over from the New Year (still) to notice that the necessary shakeout time hasn't happened.
• ... Apple will ship a tablet with multi-touch on it, and it will flop horribly. Not sure why I think this, but I just don't think the multi-touch paradigm that Apple has cooked up for the iPhone will carry over to a tablet/laptop device. That won't stop them from shipping it, and it won't stop Apple fan-boiz from buying it, but that's about where the interest will end.
• ... JDK 7 closures will be debated for a few weeks, then become a fait accompli as the Java community shrugs its collective shoulders. Frankly, I think the Java community has exhausted its interest in debating new language features for Java. Recent college grads and open-source groups with an axe to grind will continue to try and make an issue out of this, but I think the overall Java community just... doesn't... care. They just want to see JDK 7 ship someday.
• ... Scala either "pops" in 2010, or begins to fall apart. By "pops", I mean reaches a critical mass of developers interested in using it, enough to convince somebody to create a company around it, a la G2One.
• ... Oracle is going to make a serious "cloud" play, probably by offering an Oracle-hosted version of Azure or AppEngine. Oracle loves the enterprise space too much, and derives too much money from it, to not at least appear to have some kind of offering here. Now that they own Java, they'll marry it up against OpenSolaris, the Oracle database, and throw the whole thing into a series of server centers all over the continent, and call it "Oracle 12c" (c for Cloud, of course) or something.
• ... Spring development will slow to a crawl and start to take a left turn toward cloud ideas. VMWare bought SpringSource for a reason, and I believe it's entirely centered around VMWare's movement into the cloud space—they want to be more than "just" a virtualization tool. Spring + Groovy makes a compelling development stack, particularly if VMWare does some interesting hooks-n-hacks to make Spring a virtualization environment in its own right somehow. But from a practical perspective, any community-driven development against Spring is all but basically dead. The source may be downloadable later, like the VMWare Player code is, but making contributions back? Fuhgeddabowdit.
• ... the explosion of e-book readers brings the Kindle 2009 edition way down to size. The era of the e-book reader is here, and honestly, while I'm glad I have a Kindle, I'm expecting that I'll be dusting it off a shelf in a few years. Kinda like I do with my iPods from a few years ago.
• ... "social networking" becomes the "Web 2.0" of 2010. In other words, using the term will basically identify you as a tech wannabe and clearly out of touch with the bleeding edge.
• ... Facebook becomes a developer platform requirement. I don't pretend to know anything about Facebook—I'm not even on it, which amazes my family to no end—but clearly Facebook is one of those mechanisms by which people reach each other, and before long, it'll start showing up as a developer requirement for companies looking to hire. If you're looking to build out your resume to make yourself attractive to companies in 2010, mad Facebook skillz might not be a bad investment.
• ... Nintendo releases an open SDK for building games for its next-gen DS-based device. With the spectacular success of games on the iPhone, Nintendo clearly must see that they're missing a huge opportunity every day developers can't write games for the Nintendo DS that are easily downloadable to the device for playing. Nintendo is not stupid—if they don't open up the SDK and promote "casual" games like those on the iPhone and those that can now be downloaded to the Zune or the XBox, they risk being marginalized out of existence.

And for the next decade, I predict....

• ... colleges and unversities will begin issuing e-book reader devices to students. It's a helluvalot cheaper than issuing laptops or netbooks, and besides....
• ... netbooks and e-book readers will merge before the decade is out. Let's be honest—if the e-book reader could do email and browse the web, you have almost the perfect paperback-sized mobile device. As for the credit-card sized mobile device....
• ... mobile phones will all but disappear as they turn into what PDAs tried to be. "The iPhone makes calls? Really? You mean Voice-over-IP, right? No, wait, over cell signal? It can do that? Wow, there's really an app for everything, isn't there?"
• ... wireless formats will skyrocket in importance all around the office and home. Combine the iPhone's Bluetooth (or something similar yet lower-power-consuming) with an equally-capable (Bluetooth or otherwise) projector, and suddenly many executives can leave their netbook or laptop at home for a business presentation. Throw in the Whispersync-aware e-book reader/netbook-thing, and now most executives have absolutely zero reason to carry anything but their e-book/netbook and their phone/PDA. The day somebody figures out an easy way to combine Bluetooth with PayPal on the iPhone or Android phone, we will have more or less made pocket change irrelevant. And believe me, that day will happen before the end of the decade.
• ... either Android or Windows Mobile will gain some serious market share against the iPhone the day they figure out how to support an open and unrestricted AppStore-like app acquisition model. Let's be honest, the attraction of iTunes and AppStore is that I can see an "Oh, cool!" app on a buddy's iPhone, and have it on mine less than 30 seconds later. If Android or WinMo can figure out how to offer that same kind of experience without the draconian AppStore policies to go with it, they'll start making up lost ground on iPhone in a hurry.
• ... Apple becomes the DOJ target of the decade. Microsoft was it in the 2000's, and Apple's stunning rising success is going to put it squarely in the sights of monopolist accusations before long. Coupled with the unfortunate health distractions that Steve Jobs has to deal with, Apple's going to get hammered pretty hard by the end of the decade, but it will have mastered enough market share and mindshare to weather it as Microsoft has.
• ... Google becomes the next Microsoft. It won't be anything the founders do, but Google will do "something evil", and it will be loudly and screechingly pointed out by all of Google's corporate opponents, and the star will have fallen.
• ... Microsoft finds its way again. Microsoft, as a company, has lost its way. This is a company that's not used to losing, and like Bill Belichick's Patriots, they will find ways to adapt and adjust to the changed circumstances of their position to find a way to win again. What that'll be, I have no idea, but historically, the last decade notwithstanding, betting against Microsoft has historically been a bad idea. My gut tells me they'll figure something new to get that mojo back.
• ... a politician will make himself or herself famous by standing up to the TSA. The scene will play out like this: during a Congressional hearing on airline security, after some nut/terrorist tries to blow up another plane through nitroglycerine-soaked underwear, the TSA director will suggest all passengers should fly naked in order to preserve safety, the congressman/woman will stare open-mouthed at this suggestion, proclaim, "Have you no sense of decency, sir?" and immediately get a standing ovation and never have to worry about re-election again. Folks, if we want to prevent any chance of loss of life from a terrorist act on an airplane, we have to prevent passengers from getting on them. Otherwise, just accept that it might happen, do a reasonable job of preventing it from happening, and let private insurance start offering flight insurance against the possibility to reassure the paranoid.

See you all next year.

Recently, an email crossed my Inbox from a friend who was concerned about some questionable practices involving my content (as well as a few others'); apparently, I have been listed as an "author" for SysCon, I have a "domain" with them, and that I've been writing for them since 10 January, 2003, including two articles, "Effective Enterprise Java" and "Java/.NET Interoperability".

Given that both of those "articles" are summaries from presentations I've done at conferences past, I'm a touch skeptical. In fact, it feels like those summaries were scraped from conferences I've done in the past, and I certainly don't remember ever giving Sys-Con (or any other conference) the right to reprint my presentation as an article.

Then it turns out that apparently I'm not the only one suffering this problem. Go. Read that article, then come back. I promise, I'll wait.

(Seriously, go read it.)

Wow. Just... wow. If even half of what Aral's story is true (and I'm inclined to believe at least part of it, given that he's done some pretty meticulous documentation of at least his side of the story), then this is beyond outrageous, and squarely into "completely unethical".

Now, I'll be the first to admit, I've not heard back from Sys-Con about any of this, so if I get any sort of response I'll be sure to update this blog post. But...

Calling anyone a "homosexual son of a bitch", "terrorist" or "fag" is so unbelievably offensive it staggers the mind. Normally, I'd be a bit hesitant to just give either party the benefit of the doubt on that one, given just how ludicrous the accusation sounds, but Aral includes screen shots of the articles, which in of itself lends an air of credibility to the accusation—either Aral is the world's worst Turkish translator, or Sys-Con's translation into Turkish is a bit on the "edgy" side, or Sys-Con really did call him that. Which implies that whichever way this goes, doesn't look good for one of the two parties. But even if we leave that to one side....

Sys-Con is playing with fire by collecting my content and claiming me as an author. Sys-Con never contacted me about becoming a part of their "Ulitzer" website. They never asked me for permission to reprint my articles, though, I'll admit, I can't find where the articles actually exist, nor links to the articles, so maybe they didn't, actually, reprint the article, but just link to them... except I can't find the links to the articles or the presentations, either. They never asked me for an updated bio or photo, and in fact, they pretty clearly grabbed both bio, photo and "summaries" from an old location, because that bio lists me as a DevelopMentor instructor (which I haven't been for two years or so), and as living in Sacramento, CA (which I haven't been for about three years or so). Let me be very clear about this: I do not write for Sys-Con Media. I never have. They have never asked permission to reuse any of the content I have produced. I am appalled at being included in such a fashion.

Note that I'm not opposed to being linked to, mind you—if I put material on my blog, I generally expect (and hope) that people will link to it, and I don't demand permission or even notification when it happens. But to claim that I've written material for an entity does mean I expect to at least be asked if it's OK to use my likeness, name, or material. No such request was ever made of me, so far as I can remember or find (through my own email archives, which stretch back to 2001).

And I can say that I've thought about this issue before, from the other side of the story—back when I was editor at TheServerSide.NET, we began a "blogger's program" that would take interesting blog posts from around the Internet and "collect" them in some fashion for TSS.NET readers. Originally, the thought was to simply reproduce the content directly on our site, and I hated that idea, for the same reasons as I dislike it when somebody does it to me. Regardless of the licensing model the blog entries are published under, to me, a publication or media firm owes the author at least the right of refusal, and a chance to be notified when their material is reused. (In the end, we chose to ask authors if we could reproduce their material in the program, and we never (to my knowledge) had an author refuse.) It doesn't take a real rocket scientist's brain to figure out that asking permission is never a bad thing to do if you want to maintain good will with your sources of material.

This is an open and public request to Sys-Con media: either contact me about using my name, likeness and material on your website, or remove it. (I have emailed their editorial and asked them to acknowledge receipt of my request.)

In the meantime, I will be making every effort to make sure that other content-producers I know are aware of Sys-Con's practices, so they can act as they see fit.

If you are a reader, and find this distasteful as well, then I suggest you follow some of the suggestions mentioned in Aral's blog post:

• Tell everyone you know about what Sys-Con is doing (but don't link to them so as not to give them Google Juice). If tweeting, leave out the http:// bit so that your URL is not automatically made into a link.
• Sys-Con feeds upon the work of authors and speakers to live. If all authors had their content removed from Sys-Con and Ulitzer, they would not have pages to put ads on. So go through their list of authors and notify the ones you know. If they are unaware that they're listed there, they will most likely want themselves removed. Update: I've created a single list of all Sys-Con's Ulitzer authors. More information and the full list are in this post. The original list of authors is at http://www.ulitzer.com/?q=authors. You can ask for your Ulitzer/Sys-Con author page to be removed by emailing editorial@sys-con.com.
• Contact their advertisers and tell them what you think of their association with Sys-Con.
• If you know any speakers speaking at Sys-Con events, make sure they know the kind of company they are associating themselves with. Do the same with anyone you know who is thinking of attending one of their events. Raise awareness about their events at your place of work.
• Make sure Google knows that Sys-Con/Ulitzer is spamming Google with tons of duplicate content. Report them on Google's spam page for posting duplicate content. According to their terms and conditions, Google should stop indexing Sys-Con/Ulitzer. See this comment for a template you can use when reporting them.
• Make sure Google News knows that they are syndicating libelous articles from Sys-Con. Use the Google News Report an Issue form to report the following articles: http://internetvideo.sys-con.com/node/1017038, http://internetvideo.sys-con.com/node/1028923, http://www.sys-con.com/node/1035252, http://air.ulitzer.com/node/1038383, http://openwebdeveloper.sys-con.com/node/1039556, and http://cloudcomputing.sys-con.com/node/1047589

Meanwhile, I'm going to be talking about this to everybody I know at Microsoft, desperately seeking to find out which department engaged the advertising with Sys-Con, and looking to convince them that they don't need this kind of press or association. Ditto for the contacts (far fewer in number) I have with IBM, and any other Sys-Con advertiser I find.

Update: See below, but I wanted to include the text Mike Abercrombie (DM's owner) posted as a comment to this post, in the body of the blog post itself. "Ted - All of us at DevelopMentor greatly appreciate your admiration. We're also grateful for your contributions to DevelopMentor when you were part of our staff. However, all of us that work here, especially our technical staff that write and delivery our courses today, would appreciate it if you would check your sources before writing our eulogy. DevelopMentor is open for business and delivering courses this week and we intend to remain doing so." Duly noted, Mike. Apology offered (and hopefully accepted).

An email crossed my desk today, announcing that DevelopMentor, home to so many good people and fond memories, has (at least temporarily) closed its doors.

I admit to a small, carefully-cushioned place in my heart where I mourn over this.

DevelopMentor was such a transcendent place for me. Much, if not most or all, of the acceleration that came in my career came not only while I was there, but because I was there.

So much of my speaking persona and skill I owe to Ron Sumida, who took a half-baked neophyte of intermediate speaking skill, and in an eight-hour marathon session still referred to in my mental memoirs as my "Night with Scary Ron", shaped me and taught me tricks about speaking that I continue to use to this day. That I got to know him as a friend and confidant later still to this day ranks as one of my greatest blessings.

I remember my first DM Instructor Retreat, where I met so many of the names I'd read about or heard about, and feeling "Oh, my God" fanboy-ish. I remember Tim Ewald giving a talk on transactions at that retreat that left me agape—I seriously didn't understand half of what he was saying, and rather than feeling overwhelmed or ashamed, I remember distinctly thinking, "Wow—I have found a home where I can learn SO much more." It was like waking up one morning to find that your writing workshop group suddenly included Neal Stephenson, Stephen Pinker, C.S. Lewis and Ernest Hemingway. (Yes, I know those last two are dead. Work with me here.)

I remember the day that Lorie (the ops manager at the time) called me to say that Don Box wanted me to work with him on the C# course. I was convinced that she'd called the wrong Ted, meaning instead to reach for Ted Pattison in her Rolodex and coming up a few letters shy. She tartly informed me, "No, I know exactly who I'm talking to, and are you interested or not?" How could I refuse? Help the Diety of COM write DM's flagship course on Microsoft's flagship technology for the next decade? "Hmm...", I say out loud, not because I needed time to think about it, but because a thread in the back of my head says, "Is there any scenario here where I say no?"

I still fondly recall doing a Guerilla .NET at the Torrance Hilton shortly after the .NET 1.0 release, and having a conversation with Don in my hotel room later that night; that was when he told me "Microsoft is working on an open-source version of the CLR". I was stunned—I had no idea that said version would factor pretty largely in my life later. But it opened my eyes, in a very practical way, to how deeply-connected DevelopMentor was to Microsoft, and how that could play out in a direct fashion.

When Peter Drayton joined, he asked me to do a quick review pass on the reference section of his C# in a Nutshell, and I agreed because Peter was a good guy (and somebody I'd hoped would become a friend), and wanted to see the book do well. That went from informal review to formal review to "well, could you maybe make it an editing pass?" to "Would you like to write a few chapters?" to "Well, let's sign you up as a co-author...". That project is what introduced me to John Osborn, which in turn led him to call me one day and say, "Some guys at Microsoft are working on an open-source version of the CLR, and would like to have a 'professional writer' help them write a book on it. Interested?" That led to SSCLI Internals, working with David Stutz, and wow, did I learn a helluvalot from that project, too.

Effective Enterprise Java came through DevelopMentor, thanks again to Don Box, who introduced me to the folks at Addison-Wesley that put the contract (and Scott Meyers, another blessing) in front of me.

DM got me my start in the conference circuit, as well. In 2002, John Lam pinged me over email—he'd recently become track chair for Connections down in Orlando, and was I interested in speaking there? I was such a newbie to the whole idea, but having taught classes roughly twice every month, I wasn't worried about the speaking part, but the rest of the process. John walked me through the process, and in doing so, set me down a path that would almost completely redefine my career within a year or so.

Even my Java chops got built up—the head of our Java curriculum was Stu Halloway (recently of Clojure fame), and between him, Kevin Jones, Si Horrell, Brian Maso and Owen Tallman, man, did I feel simultaneously like a small child among giants and like a kid in a candy store. Every time I turned around, they'd discovered something new about the Java platform that floored me. Bob Beauchemin has forgotten more about databases in general than I will ever learn, and he had some insights on the intersection of Java + databases that still hang with me today.

And my start with No Fluff Just Stuff came through DevelopMentor, too. Jason Whittington heard through a mutual friend (Erik Hatcher, of Ant fame) about this cool little conference being held in Denver, and maybe I should look into it. That led to an email intro to Jay Zimmerman, a dinner together while I was teaching in Denver a few weeks later, and before I knew it, I was on the Denver NFJS schedule, including the speaker panel, where I uttered the then-infamous line, "Swing sucks. Get over it."

DevelopMentor, you shaped my career—and my life—in so many ways, you will always be a source of pleasant memories and a group of friends and acquaintances that I would never have had otherwise. Thank you so much.

Rest in peace.

Update: Well, as it turns out, I have to rescind at least part of my eulogy, as the post itself generated quite a stir—the folks at DevelopMentor were pretty quick to email me, pointing out that they're still alive and well. In fact, as one of them (a friend of mine still working there) put it, "We were all kinda surprised when we came to work this morning and discovered that we could go home." Fortunately, the DevelopMentor folks were pretty gracious about what could've been a very ugly situation, and I apologize for to them for the misunderstanding—all I can say is that my "source" must've also been mistaken, and I'm glad that we're all still good. And lest it need to be said out loud, I heartily want nothing but the best for DM, and hope that I never have to write this message again.

This email crossed my Inbox last week while I was on the road:

Due to the current economic situation, TechWeb has made the difficult decision to discontinue the Software Development events, including SD West, SD Best Practices and Architecture & Design World. We are grateful for your support during SD's twenty-four year history and are disappointed to see the events end.

This really bums me out, because the SD shows were some of the best shows I’ve been to, particularly SD West, which always had a great cross-cutting collection of experts from all across the industry’s big technical areas: C++, Java, .NET, security, agile, and more. It was also where I got to meet and interview Bjarne Stroustrup, a personal hero of mine from back in my days as a C++ developer, where I got to hang out each year with Scott Meyers, another personal hero (and now a good friend) as well as editor on Effective Enterprise Java, and Mike Cohn, another good friend as well as a great guy to work for. It was where I first met Gary McGraw, in a rather embarrassing fashion—in the middle of his presentation on security, my cell phone went off with a klaxon alarm ring tone loud enough to be heard throughout the entire room, and as every head turned to look at me, he commented dryly, “That’s the buffer overrun alarm—somewhere in the world, a buffer overrun attack is taking place.”

On a positive note, however, the email goes on to say that “Cloud Connect [will] take over SD West's dates in March 2010 at the Santa Clara Convention Center”, which is good news, since it means (hopefully) that I’ll still get a chance to make my yearly pilgrimage to In-N-Out....

Rest in peace, SD. You will be missed.

Interesting little tidbit crossed my Inbox today...

Only 8% members of the Scientific Research Society agreed that "peer review works well as it is". (Chubin and Hackett, 1990; p.192).

"A recent U.S. Supreme Court decision and an analysis of the peer review system substantiate complaints about this fundamental aspect of scientific research." (Horrobin, 2001)

Horrobin concludes that peer review "is a non-validated charade whose processes generate results little better than does chance." (Horrobin, 2001). This has been statistically proven and reported by an increasing number of journal editors.

But, "Peer Review is one of the sacred pillars of the scientific edifice" (Goodstein, 2000), it is a necessary condition in quality assurance for Scientific/Engineering publications, and "Peer Review is central to the organization of modern science…why not apply scientific [and engineering] methods to the peer review process" (Horrobin, 2001).

...

Chubin, D. R. and Hackett E. J., 1990, Peerless Science, Peer Review and U.S. Science Policy; New York, State University of New York Press.

Horrobin, D., 2001, "Something Rotten at the Core of Science?" Trends in Pharmacological Sciences, Vol. 22, No. 2, February 2001. Also at http://www.whale.to/vaccine/sci.html and http://post.queensu.ca/~forsdyke/peerrev4.htm (both pages were accessed on February 1, 2009)

Goodstein, D., 2000, "How Science Works", U.S. Federal Judiciary Reference Manual on Evidence, pp. 66-72 (referenced in Hoorobin, 2000)

I know that we don't generally cite the scientific process as part of the rationale for justifying code reviews, but it seems to have a distinct relationship. If the peer review process is similar in concept to the code review process, and the scientific types are starting to doubt the efficacy of peer reviews, what does that say about the code review?

(Note: I'm not a scientist, so my familiarity with peer review is third-hand at best; I'm wide open to education here. How are the code review and peer review processes different, if in fact, they are different?)

The Horrobin "sacred pillars" quote, in particular, makes me curious: Don't we already apply "scientific [and engineering] methods" to the peer review process? And can we honestly say that we in the software industry apply "scientific [and engineering]" methods to the code review process? Can we iterate the list? Or do we just trust that intuition and "more eyeballs" will help spot any obvious defects?

The implications here, when tied up next to the open source fundamental principle that states that "more eyeballs is better", are interesting to consider. If review is not a scientifically-proven or "engineeringly-sound" principle, then the open source folks are kidding themselves in thinking they're more secure or better-engineered. If we conduct a scientific measurement of code-reviewed code and find that it is "a non-validated charade whose processes generate results little better than does chance", we've at least conducted the study, and can start thinking about ways to make it better. (I do wish the email author had cited sources that provide the background to the statement, "This has been statistically proven", though.)

I know this is going to seem like a trolling post, but I'm genuinely curious--do we, in the software industry, have any scientifically-conducted studies with quantifiable metrics that imply that code-reviewed code is better than non-reviewed code? Or are we just taking it as another article of faith?

(For those who are curious, the email that triggered all this was an invitation to a conference on peer review.

This is the purpose of the International Symposium on Peer Reviewing: ISPR (http://www.ICTconfer.org/ispr) being organized in the context of The 3rd International Conference on Knowledge Generation, Communication and Management: KGCM 2009 (http://www.ICTconfer.org/kgcm), which will be held on July 10-13, 2009, in Orlando, Florida, USA.

I doubt it has any direct relevance to software, but I could be wrong. If you go, let me know of your adventures and conclusions. ;-) )

People are used to the idea of phishing attacks showing up in their email, but in glowing testament to the creativity of potential attackers, Twitter recently has seen a rash of phishing attacks through Twitter's "direct messaging" feature.

The attack plays out like this: someone on your Twitter followers list sends you a direct message saying, "hey! check out this funny blog about you... " with a hyperlink to a website, "http://jannawalitax.blogspot.com/" . Clicking on the hyperlink takes you to a website that redirects to a webpage containing what looks like the Twitter login page. This is an attempt to get you to fill in your username, and more importantly, your password.

Needless to say, I'd avoid it. If you do get suckered in (hey, I admit it, I did), make sure to change your password immediately after.

What I find fascinating about this attack is that the direct messages come from people that are on my followers list--unless Twitter somehow has a hole in it that allows non-followers to direct-message you, it means that this is a classic security Ponzi scheme: I use the attack to gather the credentials for the people that I'm following directly, then log in and use those credentials to attack their followers, then use those gathered credentials to attack their followers, and so on. Fixing this is also going to be a pain--literally, everybody on Twitter has to change their password, or the scheme can continue with the credentials of those who didn't. (Assuming Twitter doesn't somehow lop the attack off at the knees, for example, by disallowing hyperlinks or something equally draconian.)

We won't even stop to consider what damage might be done if a Twitter-user uses the same password and login name for their Twitter account as they do for other accounts (such as email, banking websites, and so on). If you're one of those folks, you seriously might want to reconsider the strategy of using the same password for all your websites, unless you don't care if they get spoofed.

There's two lessons to be learned here.

One, that as a user of a service--any service--you have to be careful about when and how you're entering your credentials. It's easy to simply get into the habit of offering them up every time you see something that looks familiar, and if supposed "computer experts" (as most of the Twitterverse can be described) can be fooled, then how about the casual user?

Two, and perhaps the more important lesson for those of us who build software, that any time you build a system that enables people to communicate, even when you put a lot of energy into making sure that the system is secure, there's always an angle that attackers will find that will expose a vulnerability, even if it's just a partial one (such as the gathering of credentials here). If you don't need to allow hyperlinks, don't. If you don't need to allow Javascript, don't. Start from the bare minimum that people need to make your system work, and only add new capabilities after they've been scrutinized in a variety of ways. (YAGNI sometimes works to our advantage in more ways than one, it turns out.)

Kudos, by the way, to the Twitter-keepers, who had a message describing the direct-message phishing attack on the Twitter Home page within hours.

It's once again that time of year, and in keeping with my tradition, I'll revisit the 2008 predictions to see how close I came before I start waxing prophetic on the coming year. (I'm thinking that maybe the next year--2010's edition--I should actually take a shot at predicting the next decade, but I'm not sure if I'd remember to go back and revisit it in 2020 to see how I did. Anybody want to set a calendar reminder for Dec 31 2019 and remind me, complete with URL? ;-) )

Without further preamble, here's what I said for 2008:

• THEN: General: The buzz around building custom languages will only continue to build. More and more tools are emerging to support the creation of custom programming languages, like Microsoft's Phoenix, Scala's parser combinators, the Microsoft DLR, SOOT, Javassist, JParsec/NParsec, and so on. Suddenly, the whole "write your own lexer and parser and AST from scratch" idea seems about as outmoded as the idea of building your own String class. Granted, there are cases where a from-hand scanner/lexer/parser/AST/etc is the Right Thing To Do, but there are times when building your own String class is the Right Thing To Do, too. Between the rich ecosystem of dynamic languages that could be ported to the JVM/CLR, and the interesting strides being made on both platforms (JVM and CLR) to make them more "dynamic-friendly" (such as being able to reify classes or access the call stack directly), the probability that your company will find a need that is best answered by building a custom language are only going to rise. NOW: The buzz has definitely continued to build, but buzz can only take us so far. There's been some scattershot use of custom languages in a few scattershot situations, but it's certainly not "taken the world by storm" in any meaningful way yet.
• THEN: General: The hype surrounding "domain-specific languages" will peak in 2008, and start to generate a backlash. Let's be honest: when somebody looks you straight in the eye and suggests that "scattered, smothered and covered" is a domain-specific language, the term has lost all meaning. A lexicon unique to an industry is not a domain-specific language; it's a lexicon. Period. If you can incorporate said lexicon into your software, thus making it accessible to non-technical professionals, that's a good thing. But simply using the lexicon doesn't make it a domain-specific language. Or, alternatively, if you like, every single API designed for a particular purpose is itself a domain-specific language. This means that Spring configuration files are a DSL. Deployment descriptors are a DSL. The Java language is a DSL (since the domain is that of programmers familiar with the Java language). See how nonsensical this can get? Until somebody comes up with a workable definition of the term "domain" in "domain-specific language", it's a nonsensical term. The idea is a powerful one, mind you--creating something that's more "in tune" with what users understand and can use easily is a technique that's been proven for decades now. Anybody who's ever watched an accountant rip an entirely new set of predictions for the new fiscal outlook based entirely on a few seed numbers and a deeply-nested set of Excel macros knows this already. Whether you call them domain-specific languages or "little languages" or "user-centric languages" or "macro language" is really up to you. NOW: The backlash hasn't begun, but only because the DSL buzz hasn't materialized in much way yet--see previous note. It generally takes a year or two of deployments (and hard-earned experience) before a backlash begins, and we haven't hit that "deployments" stage yet in anything yet resembling "critical mass" yet. But the DSL/custom language buzz continues to grow, and the more the buzz grows, the more the backlash is likey.
• THEN: General: Functional languages will begin to make their presence felt. Between Microsoft's productization plans for F# and the growing community of Scala programmers, not to mention the inherently functional concepts buried inside of LINQ and the concurrency-friendly capabilities of side-effect-free programming, the world is going to find itself working its way into functional thinking either directly or indirectly. And when programmers start to see the inherent capabilities inside of Scala (such as Actors) and/or F# (such as asynchronous workflows), they're going to embrace the strange new world of functional/object hybrid and never look back. NOW: Several books on F# and Scala (and even one or two on Haskell!) were published in 2008, and several more (including one of my own) are on the way. The functional buzz is building, and lots of disparate groups are each evaluating it (functional programming) independently.
• THEN: General: MacOS is going to start posting some serious market share numbers, leading lots of analysts to predict that Microsoft Windows has peaked and is due to collapse sometime within the remainder of the decade. Mac's not only a wonderful OS, but it's some of the best hardware to run Vista on. That will lead not a few customers to buy Mac hardware, wipe the machine, and install Vista, as many of the uber-geeks in the Windows world are already doing. This will in turn lead Gartner (always on the lookout for an established trend they can "predict" on) to suggest that Mac is going to end up with 115% market share by 2012 (.8 probability), then sell you this wisdom for a mere price of $1.5 million (per copy). NOW: Can't speak to the Gartner report--I didn't have $1.5 million handy--but certainly the MacOS is growing in popularity. More on that later.
• THEN: General: Ted will be hired by Gartner... if only to keep him from smacking them around so much. .0001 probability, with probability going up exponentially as my salary offer goes up exponentially. (Hey, I've got kids headed for college in a few years.) NOW: Well, Gartner appears to have lost my email address and phone number, but I'm sure they were planning to make me that offer.
• THEN: General: MacOS is going to start creaking in a few places. The Mac OS is a wonderful OS, but it's got its own creaky parts, and the more users that come to Mac OS, the more that software packages are going to exploit some of those creaky parts, leading to some instability in the Mac OS. It won't be widespread, but for those who are interested in finding it, they're there. Assuming current trends (of customers adopting Mac OS) hold, the Mac OS 10.6 upgrade is going to be a very interesting process, indeed. NOW: Shhh. Don't tell anybody, but I've been seeing it starting to happen. Don't get me wrong, Apple still does a pretty good job with the OS, but the law of numbers has started to create some bad upgrade scenarios for some people.
• THEN: General: Somebody is going to realize that iTunes is the world's biggest monopoly on music, and Apple will be forced to defend itself in the court of law, the court of public opinion, or both. Let's be frank: if this were Microsoft, offering music that can only be played on Microsoft music players, the world would be through the roof. All UI goodness to one side, the iPod represents just as much of a monopoly in the music player business as Internet Explorer did in the operating system business, and if the world doesn't start taking Apple to task over this, then "justice" is a word that only applies when losers in an industry want to drag down the market leader (which I firmly believe to be the case--nobody likes more than to pile on the successful guy). NOW: Nothing this year.
• THEN: General: Somebody is going to realize that the iPhone's "nothing we didn't write will survive the next upgrade process" policy is nothing short of draconian. As my father, who gets it right every once in a while, says, "If I put a third-party stereo in my car, the dealer doesn't get to rip it out and replace it with one of their own (or nothing at all!) the next time I take it in for an oil change". Fact is, if I buy the phone, I own the phone, and I own what's on it. Unfortunately, this takes us squarely into the realm of DRM and IP ownership, and we all know how clear-cut that is... But once the general public starts to understand some of these issues--and I think the iPhone and iTunes may just be the vehicle that will teach them--look out, folks, because the backlash will be huge. As in, "Move over, Mr. Gates, you're about to be joined in infamy by your other buddy Steve...." NOW: Apple released iPhone 2.0, and with it, the iPhone SDK, so at least Apple has opened the dashboard to third-party stereos. But the deployment model (AppStore) is still a bit draconian, and Apple still jealously holds the reins over which apps can be deployed there and which ones can't, so maybe they haven't learned their lesson yet, after all....
• THEN: Java: The OpenJDK in Mercurial will slowly start to see some external contributions. The whole point of Mercurial is to allow for deeper control over which changes you incorporate into your build tree, so once people figure out how to build the JDK and how to hack on it, the local modifications will start to seep across the Internet.... NOW: OpenJDK has started to collect contributions from external (to Sun) sources, but still in relatively small doses, it seems. None of the local modifications I envisioned creeping across the 'Net have begun, that I can see, so maybe it's still waiting to happen. Or maybe the OpenJDK is too complicated to really allow for that kind of customization, and it never will.
• THEN: Java: SpringSource will soon be seen as a vendor like BEA or IBM or Sun. Perhaps with a bit better reputation to begin, but a vendor all the same. NOW: SpringSource's acquisition of G2One (the company behind Groovy just as SpringSource backs Spring) only reinforced this image, but it seems it's still something that some fail to realize or acknowledge due to Spring's open-source (?) nature. (I'm not a Spring expert by any means, but apparently Spring 3 was pulled back inside the SpringSource borders, leading some people to wonder what SpringSource is up to, and whether or not Spring will continue to be open source after all.)
• THEN: .NET: Interest in OpenJDK will bootstrap similar interest in Rotor/SSCLI. After all, they're both VMs, with lots of interesting ideas and information about how the managed platforms work. NOW: Nope, hasn't really happened yet, that I can see. Not even the 2nd edition of the SSCLI book (by Joel Pobar and yours truly, yes that was a plug) seemed to foster the kind of attention or interest that I'd expected, or at least, not on the scale I'd thought might happen.
• THEN: C++/Native: If you've not heard of LLVM before this, you will. It's a compiler and bytecode toolchain aimed at the native platforms, complete with JIT and GC. NOW: Apple sank a lot of investment into LLVM, including hosting an LLVM conference at the corporate headquarters.
• THEN: Java: Somebody will create Yet Another Rails-Killer Web Framework. 'Nuff said. NOW: You know what? I honestly can't say whether this happened or not; I was completely not paying attention.
• THEN: Native: Developers looking for a native programming language will discover D, and be happy. Considering D is from the same mind that was the core behind the Zortech C++ compiler suite, and that D has great native platform integration (building DLLs, calling into DLLs easily, and so on), not to mention automatic memory management (except for those areas where you want manual memory management), it's definitely worth looking into. www.digitalmars.comNOW: D had its own get-together as well, and appears to still be going strong, among the group of developers who still work on native apps (and aren't simply maintaining legacy C/C++ apps).

Now, for the 2009 predictions. The last set was a little verbose, so let me see if I can trim the list down a little and keep it short and sweet:

• General: "Cloud" will become the next "ESB" or "SOA", in that it will be something that everybody will talk about, but few will understand and even fewer will do anything with. (Considering the widespread disparity in the definition of the term, this seems like a no-brainer.)
• Java: Interest in Scala will continue to rise, as will the number of detractors who point out that Scala is too hard to learn.
• .NET: Interest in F# will continue to rise, as will the number of detractors who point out that F# is too hard to learn. (Hey, the two really are cousins, and the fortunes of one will serve as a pretty good indication of the fortunes of the other, and both really seem to be on the same arc right now.)
• General: Interest in all kinds of functional languages will continue to rise, and more than one person will take a hint from Bob "crazybob" Lee and liken functional programming to AOP, for good and for ill. People who took classes on Haskell in college will find themselves reaching for their old college textbooks again.
• General: The iPhone is going to be hailed as "the enterprise development platform of the future", and companies will be rolling out apps to it. Look for Quicken iPhone edition, PowerPoint and/or Keynote iPhone edition, along with connectors to hook the iPhone up to a presentation device, and (I'll bet) a World of Warcraft iPhone client (legit or otherwise). iPhone is the new hotness in the mobile space, and people will flock to it madly.
• .NET: Another Oslo CTP will come out, and it will bear only a superficial resemblance to the one that came out in October at PDC. Betting on Oslo right now is a fools' bet, not because of any inherent weakness in the technology, but just because it's way too early in the cycle to be thinking about for anything vaguely resembling production code.
• .NET: The IronPython and IronRuby teams will find some serious versioning issues as they try to manage the DLR versioning story between themselves and the CLR as a whole. An initial hack will result, which will be codified into a standard practice when .NET 4.0 ships. Then the next release of IPy or IRb will have to try and slip around its restrictions in 2010/2011. By 2012, IPy and IRb will have to be shipping as part of Visual Studio just to put the releases back into lockstep with one another (and the rest of the .NET universe).
• Java: The death of JSR-277 will spark an uprising among the two leading groups hoping to foist it off on the Java community--OSGi and Maven--while the rest of the Java world will breathe a huge sigh of relief and look to see what "modularity" means in Java 7. Some of the alpha geeks in Java will start using--if not building--JDK 7 builds just to get a heads-up on its impact, and be quietly surprised and, I dare say, perhaps even pleased.
• Java: The invokedynamic JSR will leapfrog in importance to the top of the list.
• Windows: Another Windows 7 CTP will come out, and it will spawn huge media interest that will eventually be remembered as Microsoft promises, that will eventually be remembered as Microsoft guarantees, that will eventually be remembered as Microsoft FUD and "promising much, delivering little". Microsoft ain't always at fault for the inflated expectations people have--sometimes, yes, perhaps even a lot of times, but not always.
• Mac OS: Apple will begin to legally threaten the clone market again, except this time somebody's going to get the DOJ involved. (Yes, this is the iPhone/iTunes prediction from last year, carrying over. I still expect this to happen.)
• Languages: Alpha-geek developers will start creating their own languages (even if they're obscure or bizarre ones like Shakespeare or Ook#) just to have that listed on their resume as the DSL/custom language buzz continues to build.
• XML Services: Roy Fielding will officially disown most of the "REST"ful authors and software packages available. Nobody will care--or worse, somebody looking to make a name for themselves will proclaim that Roy "doesn't really understand REST". And they'll be right--Roy doesn't understand what they consider to be REST, and the fact that he created the term will be of no importance anymore. Being "REST"ful will equate to "I did it myself!", complete with expectations of a gold star and a lollipop.
• Parrot: The Parrot guys will make at least one more minor point release. Nobody will notice or care, except for a few doggedly stubborn Perl hackers. They will find themselves having nightmares of previous lives carrying around OS/2 books and Amiga paraphernalia. Perl 6 will celebrate it's seventh... or is it eighth?... anniversary of being announced, and nobody will notice.
• Agile: The debate around "Scrum Certification" will rise to a fever pitch as short-sighted money-tight companies start looking for reasons to cut costs and either buy into agile at a superficial level and watch it fail, or start looking to cut the agilists from their company in order to replace them with cheaper labor.
• Flash: Adobe will continue to make Flex and AIR look more like C# and the CLR even as Microsoft tries to make Silverlight look more like Flash and AIR. Web designers will now get to experience the same fun that back-end web developers have enjoyed for near-on a decade, as shops begin to artificially partition themselves up as either "Flash" shops or "Silverlight" shops.
• Personal: Gartner will still come knocking, looking to hire me for outrageous sums of money to do nothing but blog and wax prophetic.

Well, so much for brief or short. See you all again next year....

Roy Fielding has weighed in on the recent "buzzwordiness" (hey, if Colbert can make up "truthiness", then I can make up "buzzwordiness") of calling everything a "REST API", a tactic that has become more en vogue of late as vendors discover that the general programming population is finding the WSDL-based XML services stack too complex to navigate successfully for all but the simplest of projects. Contrary to what many RESTafarians may be hoping, Roy doesn't gather all these wayward children to his breast and praise their anti-vendor/anti-corporate/anti-proprietary efforts, but instead, blasts them pretty seriously for mangling his term:

I am getting frustrated by the number of people calling any HTTP-based interface a REST API. Today’s example is the SocialSite REST API. That is RPC. It screams RPC. There is so much coupling on display that it should be given an X rating.

Ouch. "So much coupling on display that it should be given an X rating." I have to remember that phrase--that's a keeper. And I'm shocked that Roy even knows what an X rating is; he's such a mellow guy with such an innocent-looking face, I would've bet money he'd never run into one before. (Yes, people, that's a joke.)

What needs to be done to make the REST architectural style clear on the notion that hypertext is a constraint? In other words, if the engine of application state (and hence the API) is not being driven by hypertext, then it cannot be RESTful and cannot be a REST API. Period. Is there some broken manual somewhere that needs to be fixed?

Go Roy!

For those of you who've not read Roy's thesis, and are thinking that this is some kind of betrayal or trick, let's first of all point out that at no point is Roy saying that your nifty HTTP-based API is not useful or simple. He's simply saying that it isn't RESTful. That's a key differentiation. REST has a specific set of goals and constraints it was trying to meet, and as such prescribes a particular kind of architectural style to fit within those constraints. (Yes, REST is essentially an architectural pattern: a solution to a problem within a certain context that yields certain consequences.)

Assuming you haven't tuned me out completely already, allow me to elucidate. In Chapter 5 of Roy's thesis, Roy begins to build up the style that will ultimately be considered REST. I'm not going to quote each and every step here--that's what the hyperlink above is for--but simply call out certain parts. For example, in section 5.1.3, "Stateless", he suggests that this architectural style should be stateless in nature, and explains why; the emphasis/italics are mine:

We next add a constraint to the client-server interaction: communication must be stateless in nature, as in the client-stateless-server (CSS) style of Section 3.4.3 (Figure 5-3), such that each request from client to server must contain all of the information necessary to understand the request, and cannot take advantage of any stored context on the server. Session state is therefore kept entirely on the client.

This constraint induces the properties of visibility, reliability, and scalability. Visibility is improved because a monitoring system does not have to look beyond a single request datum in order to determine the full nature of the request. Reliability is improved because it eases the task of recovering from partial failures [133]. Scalability is improved because not having to store state between requests allows the server component to quickly free resources, and further simplifies implementation because the server doesn't have to manage resource usage across requests.

Like most architectural choices, the stateless constraint reflects a design trade-off. The disadvantage is that it may decrease network performance by increasing the repetitive data (per-interaction overhead) sent in a series of requests, since that data cannot be left on the server in a shared context. In addition, placing the application state on the client-side reduces the server's control over consistent application behavior, since the application becomes dependent on the correct implementation of semantics across multiple client versions.

In the HTTP case, the state is contained entirely in the document itself, the hypertext. This has a couple of implications for those of us building "distributed applications", such as the very real consideration that there's a lot of state we don't necessarily want to be sending back to the client, such as voluminous information (the user's e-commerce shopping cart contents) or sensitive information (the user's credentials or single-signon authentication/authorization token). This is a bitter pill to swallow for the application development world, because much of the applications we develop have some pretty hefty notions of server-based state management that we want or need to preserve, either for legacy support reasons, for legitimate concerns (network bandwidth or security), or just for ease-of-understanding. Fielding isn't apologetic about it, though--look at the third paragraph above. "[T]he stateless constraint reflects a design trade-off."

In other words, if you don't like it, fine, don't follow it, but understand that if you're not leaving all the application state on the client, you're not doing REST.

By the way, note that technically, HTTP is not tied to HTML, since the document sent back and forth could easily be a PDF document, too, particularly since PDF supports hyperlinks to other PDF documents. Nowhere in the thesis do we see the idea that it has to be HTML flying back and forth.

Roy's thesis continues on in the same vein; in section 5.1.4 he describes how "client-cache-stateless-server" provides some additional reliability and performance, but only if the data in the cache is consistent and not stale, which was fine for static documents, but not for dynamic content such as image maps. Extensions were necessary in order to accomodate the new ideas.

In section 5.1.5 ("Uniform Interface") we get to another stinging rebuke of REST as a generalized distributed application scheme; again, the emphasis is mine:

The central feature that distinguishes the REST architectural style from other network-based styles is its emphasis on a uniform interface between components (Figure 5-6). By applying the software engineering principle of generality to the component interface, the overall system architecture is simplified and the visibility of interactions is improved. Implementations are decoupled from the services they provide, which encourages independent evolvability. The trade-off, though, is that a uniform interface degrades efficiency, since information is transferred in a standardized form rather than one which is specific to an application's needs. The REST interface is designed to be efficient for large-grain hypermedia data transfer, optimizing for the common case of the Web, but resulting in an interface that is not optimal for other forms of architectural interaction.

In order to obtain a uniform interface, multiple architectural constraints are needed to guide the behavior of components. REST is defined by four interface constraints: identification of resources; manipulation of resources through representations; self-descriptive messages; and, hypermedia as the engine of application state. These constraints will be discussed in Section 5.2.

In other words, in order to be doing something that Fielding considers RESTful, you have to be using hypermedia (that is to say, hypertext documents of some form) as the core of your application state. It might seem like this implies that you have to be building a Web application in order to be considered building something RESTful, so therefore all Web apps are RESTful by nature, but pay close attention to the wording: hypermedia must be the core of your application state. The way most Web apps are built today, HTML is clearly not the core of the state, but merely a way to render it. This is the accidental consequence of treating Web applications and desktop client applications as just pale reflections of one another.

The next section, 5.1.6 ("Layered System") again builds on the notion of stateless-server architecture to provide additional flexibility and power:

In order to further improve behavior for Internet-scale requirements, we add layered system constraints (Figure 5-7). As described in Section 3.4.2, the layered system style allows an architecture to be composed of hierarchical layers by constraining component behavior such that each component cannot "see" beyond the immediate layer with which they are interacting. By restricting knowledge of the system to a single layer, we place a bound on the overall system complexity and promote substrate independence. Layers can be used to encapsulate legacy services and to protect new services from legacy clients, simplifying components by moving infrequently used functionality to a shared intermediary. Intermediaries can also be used to improve system scalability by enabling load balancing of services across multiple networks and processors.

The primary disadvantage of layered systems is that they add overhead and latency to the processing of data, reducing user-perceived performance [32]. For a network-based system that supports cache constraints, this can be offset by the benefits of shared caching at intermediaries. Placing shared caches at the boundaries of an organizational domain can result in significant performance benefits [136]. Such layers also allow security policies to be enforced on data crossing the organizational boundary, as is required by firewalls [79].

The combination of layered system and uniform interface constraints induces architectural properties similar to those of the uniform pipe-and-filter style (Section 3.2.2). Although REST interaction is two-way, the large-grain data flows of hypermedia interaction can each be processed like a data-flow network, with filter components selectively applied to the data stream in order to transform the content as it passes [26]. Within REST, intermediary components can actively transform the content of messages because the messages are self-descriptive and their semantics are visible to intermediaries.

The potential of layered systems (itself not something that people building RESTful approaches seem to think much about) is only realized if the entirety of the state being transferred is self-descriptive and visible to the intermediaries--in other words, intermediaries can only be helpful and/or non-performance-inhibitive if they have free reign to make decisions based on the state they see being transferred. If something isn't present in the state being transferred, usually because there is server-side state being maintained, then they have to be concerned about silently changing the semantics of what is happening in the interaction, and intermediaries--and layers as a whole--become a liability. (Which is probably why so few systems seem to do it.)

And if the notion of visible, transported state is not yet made clear in his dissertation, Fielding dissects the discussion even further in section 5.2.1, "Data Elements". It's too long to reprint here in its entirety, and frankly, reading the whole thing is necessary to see the point of hypermedia and its place in the whole system. (The same could be said of the entire chapter, in fact.) But it's pretty clear, once you read the dissertation, that hypermedia/hypertext is a core, critical piece to the whole REST construction. Clients are expected, in a RESTful system, to have no preconceived notions of structure or relationship between resources, and discover all of that through the state of the hypertext documents that are sent back to them. In the HTML case, that discovery occurs inside the human brain; in the SOA/services case, that discovery is much harder to define and describe. RDF and Semantic Web ideas may be of some help here, but JSON can't, and simple XML can't, unless the client has some preconceived notion of what the XML structure looks like, which violates Fielding's rules:

A REST API should be entered with no prior knowledge beyond the initial URI (bookmark) and set of standardized media types that are appropriate for the intended audience (i.e., expected to be understood by any client that might use the API). From that point on, all application state transitions must be driven by client selection of server-provided choices that are present in the received representations or implied by the user’s manipulation of those representations. The transitions may be determined (or limited by) the client’s knowledge of media types and resource communication mechanisms, both of which may be improved on-the-fly (e.g., code-on-demand). [Failure here implies that out-of-band information is driving interaction instead of hypertext.]

An interesting "fuzzy gray area" here is whether or not the client's knowledge of a variant or schematic structure of XML could be considered to be a "standardized media type", but I'm willing to bet that Fielding will argue against it on the grounds that your application's XML schema is not "standardized" (unless, of course, it is, through a national/international/industry standardization effort).

But in case you'd missed it, let me summarize the past twenty or so paragraphs: hypermedia is a core requirement to being RESTful. If you ain't slinging all of your application state back and forth in hypertext, you ain't REST. Period. Fielding said it, he defined it, and that settles it.

Before the hate mail comes a-flyin', let me reiterate one vitally important point: if you're not doing REST, it doesn't mean that your API sucks. Fielding may have his definition of what REST is, and the idealist in me wants to remain true to his definitions of it (after all, if we can't agree on a common set of definitions, a common lexicon, then we can't really make much progress as an industry), but...

... the pragmatist in me keeps saying, "so what"?

Look, at the end of the day, if your system wants to misuse HTTP, abuse HTML, and carnally violate the principles of loose coupling and resource representation that underlie REST, who cares? Do you get special bonus points from the Apache Foundation if you use HTTP in the way Fielding intended? Will Microsoft and Oracle and Sun and IBM offer you discounts on your next software purchases if you create a REST-faithful system? Will the partisan politics in Washington, or the tribal conflicts in the Middle East, or even the widely-misnamed "REST-vs-SOAP" debates come to an end if you only figure out a way to make hypermedia the core engine of your application state?

Yeah, I didn't think so, either.

Point is, REST is just an architectural style. It is nothing more than another entry alongside such things as client-server, n-tier, distributed objects, service-oriented, and embedded systems. REST is just a tool for thinking about how to build an application, and it's high time we kick it off the pedastal on which we've placed it and let it come back down to earth with the rest of us mortals. HTTP is useful, but not sufficient, so solve our problems. REST is as well.

And at the end of the day, when we put one tool from our tool belt "above all others", we end up building some truly horrendous crap.

Recently, a blog reader asked me if I wasn't doing any speaking any more since I'd joined ThoughtWorks, and that's when I realized I'd been bad about updating my speaking calendar on the website. Sorry, all; no, ThoughtWorks didn't pull my conference visa or anything, I've just been bad about keeping it up to date. I'll fix that ASAP, but in the meantime, three events that I'll be at in the coming wintry months include:

Øredev 2008: 19 - 21 November, Malmoe, Sweden

Øredev will be a first for me, and I've ben invited to give a keynote there, along with a few technical sessions. I'm also told that .NET Rocks! will be on hand, and that they want to record a session, on whichever topic happens to cross the curious, crafty and cunning Carl, or the uh... the uh... sorry, Richard, there's just no good "R" adjectives I can use here. I mean, "rough" and "ready" don't exactly sound flattering in this context, right? Sorry, man.

In any event, I'm looking forward to this event, because it's a curious mix of technologies and ideas (agile, ALT.NET, Java, core .NET, languages, and so on), and because I've never been to Sweden before. One more European country, off my bucket list! :-)

(Yes, I had to cut-and-paste the Ø wherever I needed it. *grin*)

DevTeach 2008: 1 - 5 December, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

This has been one of my favorite shows since it began, way back in 2003, and a large part of that love has to do with the cast and crew of characters that I see there every year: Julie Lerman, Peter DeBetta, Carl and Richard (again!), Beth Massi, "Yag" Griver, Mario Cardinal and the rest of the Quebecois posse, Ayende, plus some new faces and friends, like Jessica Moss and James Kovacs. (Oh, and for the record, folks, for those of you who are still talking about it, the O/R-M smackdown of a year ago was staged. It was all fake. Ayende and I are really actually friends, we were paid a great deal of money by Carl and Richard to make it sound good, and in fact, we both agree that the only place anybody should really ever store their data is in an XML database.)

If you're near Montreal, and you're a .NET dev, you really owe it to yourself to check this show out.

Update: I just got this email from Jean-Rene, the guy who runs DevTeach:

Every attendees will get Visual Studio 2008 Pro, Expression Web 2 and Tech-Ed DEV set in their bag!

DevTeach believe that all developers need the right tool to be productive. This is what we will give you, free software, when you register to DevTeach or SQLTeach. Yes that right! We’re pleased to announce that we’re giving over a 1000$ of software when you register to DevTeach. You will find in your conference bag a version of Visual Studio 2008 Professional, ExpressionTM Web 2 and the Tech-Ed Conference DVD Set. Is this a good deal or what? DevTeach and SQLTeach are really the training you can’t get any other way.

Not bad. Not bad at all.

DeVoxx 2008: 8 - 12 December, Antwerp, Belgium

DeVoxx, the recently-renamed-formerly-named-JavaPolis conference, has brought me back to team up with Bill Venners to do a University session on Scala, and to record a few more of those Parlays videos that people can't seem to get enough of. Given that this show always seems to draw some of the Java world's best and brightest, I'm definitely looking forward to the chance to point the mike at somebody's grill and give 'em hell! Plus, I love Belgium, and I'm looking forward to getting back there. The fact that it's going to be the middle of winter is only a bonus, as... wait... Belgium, in the middle of winter? Whose bright idea was that?

(And finally, a show that Carl and Richard won't be at!)

Meanwhile, I promise to keep the "Upcoming Events" up to date for 2009. Seriously. I mean it. :-)

The full list is here. It's a pretty prestigious group--and I'm totally floored that I'm there next to some pretty big names.

In homage to Ms. Sally Fields, of so many years ago... "You like me, you really like me". Having somebody come up to me at a conference and tell me how much they like my blog is second on my list of "fun things to happen to me at a conference", right behind having somebody come up to me at a conference and tell me how much they like my blog, except for that one entry, where I said something totally ridiculous (and here's why) ....

What I find most fascinating about the list was the means by which it was constructed--the various calculations behind page rank, technorati rating, and so on. Very cool stuff.

Perhaps it's trite to say it, but it's still true: readers are what make writing blogs worthwhile. Thanks to all of you.

For those of you who were at the Cinncinnati NFJS show, please continue on to the next blog entry in your reader--you've already heard this. For those of you who weren't, then allow me to make the announcement:

Hi. My name's Ted Neward, and I am now a ThoughtWorker.

After four months of discussions, interviews, more discussions and more interviews, I can finally say that ThoughtWorks and I have come to a meeting of the minds, and starting 3 September I will be a Principal Consultant at ThoughtWorks. My role there will be to consult, write, mentor, architect and speak on Java, .NET, XML Services (and maybe even a little Ruby), not to mention help ThoughtWorks' clients achieve IT success in other general ways.

Yep, I'm basically doing the same thing I've been doing for the last five years. Except now I'm doing it with a TW logo attached to my name.

By the way, ThoughtWorkers get to choose their own titles, and I'm curious to know what readers think my title should be. Send me your suggestions, and if one really strikes home, I'll use it and update this entry to reflect the choice. I have a few ideas, but I'm finding that other people can be vastly more creative than I, and I'd love to have a title that rivals Neal's "Meme Wrangler" in coolness.

Oh, and for those of you who were thinking this, "Seat Warmer" has already been taken, from what I understand.

Honestly, this is a connection that's been hovering at the forefront of my mind for several years. I like ThoughtWorks' focus on success, their willingness to explore new ideas (both methodologies and technologies), their commitment to the community, their corporate values, and their overall attitude of "work hard, play hard". There have definitely been people who came away from ThoughtWorks with a negative impression of the company, but they're the minority. Any company that encourages T-shirts and jeans, XBoxes in the office, and wants to promote good corporate values is a winner in my book. In short, ThoughtWorks is, in many ways, the consulting company that I would want to build, if I were going to build a consulting firm. I'm not a wild fan of the travel commitments, mind you, but I am definitely no stranger to travel, we've got some ideas about how I can stay at home a bit more, and frankly I've been champing at the bit to get injected into more agile and team projects, so it feels like a good tradeoff. Plus, I get to think about languages and platforms in a more competitive and hostile way--not that TW is a competitive and hostile place, mind you, but in that my new fellow ThoughtWorkers will not let stupid thoughts stand for long, and will quickly find the holes in my arguments even faster, thus making the arguments as a whole that much stronger... or shooting them down because they really are stupid. (Either outcome works pretty well for me.)

What does this mean to the rest of you? Not much change, really--I'm still logging lots of hours at conferences, I'm still writing (and blogging, when the muse strikes), and I'm still available for consulting/mentoring/speaking; the big difference is that now I come with a thousand-strong developers of proven capability at my back, not to mention two of the more profound and articulate speakers in the industry (in Neal and Martin) as peers. So if you've got some .NET, Java, or Ruby projects you're thinking about, and you want a team to come in and make it happen, you know how to reach me.

Recently, a former student asked me,

I was in a .NET web services training class that you gave probably 4 or so years ago on-site at a [company name] office in [city], north of Atlanta.  At that time I asked you for a list of the technical blogs that you read, and I am curious which blogs you are reading now.  I am now with a small company where I have to be a jack of all trades, in the last year I have worked in C++ and Perl backend type projects and web frontend projects with Java, C#, and RoR, so I find your perspective interesting since you also work with various technologies and aren't a zealot for a specific one.

Any way, please either respond by email or in your blog, because I think that others may be interested in the list also.

As one might expect, my blog list is a bit eclectic, but I suppose that's part of the charm of somebody looking to study Java, .NET, C++, Smalltalk, Ruby, Parrot, LLVM, and other languages and environments. So, without further ado, I've pasted in the contents of my OPML file for cut&paste and easy import.

Having said that, though, I would strongly suggest not just blindly importing the whole set of feeds into your nearest RSS reader, but take a moment and go visit each one before you add it. It takes longer, granted, but the time spent is a worthy investment--you don't want to have to declare "blog bankruptcy".

Editor's note: We pause here as readers look at each other and go... "WTF?!?"

"Blog bankruptcy" is a condition similar to "email bankruptcy", when otherwise perfectly high-functioning people give up on trying to catch up to the flood of messages in their email client's Inbox and delete the whole mess (usually with some kind of public apology explaining why and asking those who've emailed them in the past to resend something if it was really important), effectively trying to "start over" with their email in much the same way that Chapter Seven or Chapter Eleven allows companies to "start over" with their creditors, or declaring bankruptcy allows private citizens to do the same with theirs. "Blog bankruptcy" is a similar kind of condition: your RSS reader becomes so full of stuff that you can't keep up, and you can't even remember which blogs were the interesting ones, so you nuke the whole thing and get away from the blog-reading thing for a while.

This happened to me, in fact: a few years ago, when I became the editor-in-chief of TheServerSide.NET, I asked a few folks for their OPML lists, so that I could quickly and easily build a list of blogs that would "tune me in" to the software industry around me, and many of them quite agreeably complied. I took my RSS reader (Newsgator, at the time) and dutifully imported all of them, and ended up with a collection of blogs that was easily into the hundreds of feeds long. And, over time, I found myself reading fewer and fewer blogs, mostly because the whole set was so... intimidating. I mean, I would pick at the list of blogs and their entries in the same way that I picked at vegetables on my plate as a child--half-heartedly, with no real enthusiasm, as if this was something my parents were forcing me to do. That just ruined the experience of blog-reading for me, and eventually (after I left TSS.NET for other pastures), I nuked the whole thing--even going so far as to uninstall my copy of Newsgator--and gave up.

Naturally, I missed it, and slowly over time began to rebuild the list, this time, taking each feed one at a time, carefully weighing what value the feed was to me and selecting only those that I thought had a high signal-to-noise ratio. (This is partly why I don't include much "personal" info in this blog--I found myself routinely stripping away those blogs that had more personal content and less technical content, and I figured if I didn't want to read it, others probably felt the same way.) Over the last year or two, I've rebuilt the list to the point where I probably need to prune a bit and close a few of them back down, but for now, I'm happy with the list I've got.

And speaking of which....

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               21:
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               22:
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               23:
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               28:
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               29:
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               30:
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               31:
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               32:
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               33:
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               34:
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               35:
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               37:
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               39:
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               45:
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               46:
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               47:
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               48:
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               49:
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               50:
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               51:
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               52:
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               53:
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               54:
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               55:
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               56:
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               57:
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               58:
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               59:
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               60:
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               61:
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               62:
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Happy reading.....

Apparently, I'm drawing enough of an audience through this blog that various folks have started to send me press releases and notifications and requests for... well, I dunno exactly, but I'm assuming some blogging love of some kind. I'm always a little leery about that particular subject, because it always has this dangerous potential to turn the blog into a less-credible marketing device, but people at conferences have suggested that they really are interested in what I think about various products and tools, so perhaps it's time to amend my stance on this.

With that in mind, if you are a vendor and have a product that you'd like me to take a look at and (possibly) offer up a review here, here's the basic rules:

1. No guarantees. Sending me something will in no way guarantee that I will review your product, for several reasons, two of which being (a) I get really busy sometimes, and (b) I may have no interest whatsoever in your product and I refuse to pretend to do so. (Readers can usually tell when the reviewer isn't all that excited about the subject, I've found.)
2. If you're not going to send me a "real" version (meaning not the time-locked or feature-crippled demo), don't bother. I have no idea when I will get around to a review, and I have no desire to review something that isn't "the real deal". I will in turn promise that the licensed version you send me (if necessary) will not be used for any purpose other than my own research and exploration (signing contract if necessary to give you that "fresh-from-the-lawyer's-office" warm and fuzzy feeling).
3. I say what I think, pro and con. I will not edit my review to suit your marketing purpose, and if you ask me to do so I will simply note in the review that you have asked me to do so. I retain full editorial control over what I say about your product.
4. Having established #1, I will try to be as fair as I can about your product, and point out things that I liked and things that I didn't. (Of course, if I hated it from top to bottom, I may end up with the only positive thing being "It didn't set the atmosphere on fire when I started the app", but hey, that's something positive, right?)
5. Also in the spirit of #1, if you send me mail answering questions or complaints in my review, I will of course amend the review with your comments. You are always welcome to post comments to the blog entry itself, too. Unless you insult my grandmother, then I will have to get all DELETE-key on you.

The reason I'm posting this here is twofold: one, so my faithful audience of four blog readers will know the rules under which I'm looking at these products and (hopefully) realize that I'm not financially vested in any of these products, and two, so the various vendor folks can read this and know what the rules are up front before even asking.

I know it sounds a little cheeky to lay this out. The image I get in my head is that of the kid at Christmas declaring to his grandparents as they walk through the door, presents in hand, "Make sure it's not a scratchy sweater, I hate scratchy sweaters. And G.I. Joe was only popular when my Dad was a kid. And if you give me another lunchbox I will scream until you buy me something cool, like a new GameBoy." Ugh. But I value the trust that people seem to have in me, and so I risk the perception of cheekiness for this tiny window in time in order to (hopefully) establish full disclosure over the reviews that come to pass (which, by the way, will always have the category "review" applied to them, so you know which is an official review and which is just me exploring, like the LLVM and Parrot posts of recent time).

We now return you to the regularly-scheduled blog.

A couple of people have asked me over the last few weeks, so it's probably worth saying out loud:

No, I don't work for a large company, so yes, I'm available for consulting and research projects. If you've got one of those burning questions like, "How would our company/project/department/whatever make use of JRuby-and-Rails, and what would the impact to the rest of the system be", or "Could using F# help us write applications faster", or "How would we best integrate Groovy into our application", or "How does the new Adobe Flex/AIR move help us build richer client apps", or "How do we improve the performance of our Java/.NET app", or other questions along those lines, drop me a line and let's talk. Not only will I cook up a prototype describing the answer, but I'll meet with your management and explain the consequences of the research, both pro and con, for them to evaluate.

Shameless call for consulting complete, now back to the regularly-scheduled programming.

Just recently, I got this bit in an email from the Redmond Developer News ezine:

TWO IF BY SEA

In the course of just over a week starting on Jan. 30, a total of five undersea data cables linking Europe, Africa and the Middle East were damaged or disrupted. The first two cables to be lost link Europe with Egypt and terminate near the Port of Alexandria.

http://reddevnews.com/columns/article.aspx?editorialsid=2502

Early speculation placed the blame on ship anchors that might have dragged across the sea floor during heavy weather. But the subsequent loss of cables in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean has produced a chilling numbers game. Someone, it seems, may be trying to sabotage the global network.

It's a conclusion that came up at a recent International Telecommunication Union (ITU) press conference. According to an Associated Press report, ITU head of development Sami al-Murshed isn't ready to "rule out that a deliberate act of sabotage caused the damage to the undersea cables over two weeks ago."

http://tinyurl.com/3bjtdg

You think?

In just seven or eight days, five undersea cables were disrupted.

Five. All of them serving or connecting to the Middle East. And thus far, only one cable cut -- linking Oman and the United Arab Emirates -- has been identified as accidental, caused by a dragging ship anchor.

So what does it mean for developers? A lot, actually. Because it means that the coming wave of service-enabled applications needs to take into account the fact that the cloud is, literally, under attack.

This isn't new. For as long as the Internet has been around, concerns about attacks on the network have centered on threats posed by things like distributed denial of service (DDOS) and other network-borne attacks. Twice -- once in 2002 and again in 2007 -- DDOS attacks have targeted the 13 DNS root servers, threatening to disrupt the Internet.

But assaults on the remote physical infrastructure of the global network are especially concerning. These cables lie hundreds or even thousands of feet beneath the surface. This wasn't a script-kiddie kicking off an ill-advised DOS attack on a server. This was almost certainly a sophisticated, well-planned, well-financed and well-thought-out effort to cut off an entire section of the world from the global Internet.

Clearly, efforts need to be made to ensure that the intercontinental cable infrastructure of the Internet is hardened. Redundant, geographically dispersed links, with plenty of excess bandwidth, are a good start.

But development planners need to do their part, as well. Web-based applications shouldn't be crafted with the expectation of limitless bandwidth. Services and apps must be crafted so that they can fail gracefully, shift to lower-bandwidth media (such as satellite) and provide priority to business-critical operations. In short, your critical cloud-reliant apps must continue to work, when almost nothing else will.

And all this, I might add, as the industry prepares to welcome the second generation of rich Internet application tools and frameworks.

Silverlight 2.0 will debut at MIX08 next month. Adobe is upping the ante with its latest offerings. Developers will enjoy a major step up in their ability to craft enriched, Web-entangled applications and environments.

But as you make your plans and write your code, remember this one thing: The people, organization or government that most likely sliced those four or five cables in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf -- they can do it again.

There's a couple of things to consider here, aside from the geopolitical ramifications of a concerted attack on the global IT infrastructure (which does more to damage corporations and the economy than it does to disrupt military communications, which to my understanding are mostly satellite-based).

First, this attack on the global infrastructure raises a huge issue with respect to outsourcing--if you lose touch with your development staff for a day, a week, a month (just how long does it take to lay down new trunk cable, anyway?), what sort of chaos is this going to strike with your project schedule? In The World is Flat, Friedman mentions that a couple of fast-food restaurants have outsourced the drive-thru--you drive up to the speaker, and as you place your order, you're talking to somebody half a world way who's punching it into a computer that's flashing the data back to the fast-food join in question for harvesting (it's not like they make the food when you order it, just harvest it from the fields of pre-cooked burgers ripening under infrared lamps in the back) and disbursement as you pull forward the remaining fifty feet to the first window.

The ludicrousness of this arrangement notwithstanding, this means that the local fast-food joint is now dependent on the global IT infrastructure in the same way that your ERP system is. Aside from the obvious "geek attraction" to a setup like this, I find it fascinating that at no point did somebody stand up and yell out, "What happened to minimizing the risks?" Effective project development relies heavily on the ability to touch base with the customer every so often to ensure things are progressing in the way the customer was anticipating. When the development team is one ocean and two continents away in one direction, or one ocean and a whole pile of islands away in the other direction, or even just a few states over, that vital communication link is now at the mercy of every single IT node in between them and you.

We can make huge strides, but at the end of the day, the huge distances involved can only be "fractionalized", never eliminated.

Second, as Desmond points out, this has a huge impact on the design of applications that are assuming a 100% or 99.9% Internet uptime. Yes, I'm looking at you, GMail and Google Calendar and the other so-called "next-generation Internet applications" based on technologies like AJAX. (I categorically refuse to call them "Web 2.0" applications--there is no such thing as "Web 2.0".) As much as we keep looking to the future for an "always-on" networking infrastructure, the more we delude ourselves to the practical realities of life: there is no such thing as "always-on" infrastructure. Networking or otherwise.

I know this personally, since last year here in Redmond, some stronger-than-normal winter storms knocked down a whole slew of power lines and left my house without electricity for a week. To very quickly discover how much of modern Western life depends on "always-on" assumptions, go without power to the house for a week. We were fortunate--parts of Redmond and nearby neighborhoods got power back within 24 hours, so if I needed to recharge the laptop or get online to keep doing business, much less get a hot meal or just find a place where it was warm, it meant a quick trip down to the local strip mall where a restaurant with WiFi (Canyon's, for those of you that visit Redmond) kept me going. For others in Redmond, the power outage meant a brief vacation down at the Redmond Town Center Marriott, where power was available pretty much within an hour or two of its disruption.

The First Fallacy of Enterprise Systems states that "The network is reliable". The network is only as reliable as the infrastructure around it, and not just the infrastructure that your company lays down from your workstation to the proxy or gateway or cable modem. Take a "traceroute" reading from your desktop machine to the server on which your application is running--if it's not physically in the building as you, then you're probably looking at 20 - 30 "hops" before it reaches the server. Every single one of those "hops" is a potential point of failure. Granted, the architecture of TCP/IP suggests that we should be able to route around any localized points of failure, but how many of those points are, in fact, to your world view, completely unroutable? If your gateway machine goes down, how does TCP/IP try to route around that? If your ISP gets hammered by a Denial-of-Service attack, how do clients reach the server?

If we cannot guarantee 100% uptime for electricity, something we've had close to a century to perfect, then how can you assume similar kinds of guarantees for network availability? And before any of you point out that "Hey, most of the time, it just works so why worry about it?", I humbly suggest you walk into your Network Operations Center and ask the helpful IT people to point out the Uninterruptible Power Supplies that fuel the servers there "just in case".

When they in turn ask you to point out the "just in case" infrastructure around the application, what will you say?

Remember, the Fallacies only bite you when you ignore them:

1) The network is reliable

2) Latency is zero

3) Bandwidth is infinite

4) The network is secure

5) Topology doesn't change

6) There is one administrator

7) Transport cost is zero

8) The network is homogeneous

9) The system is monolithic

10) The system is finished

Every project needs, at some point, to have somebody stand up in the room and shout out, "But how do we minimize the risks?" If this is truly a "mission-critical" application, then somebody needs the responsibility of cooking up "What if?" scenarios and answers, even if the answer is to say, "There's not much we can reasonably do in that situation, so we'll just accept that the company shuts its doors in that case".

People visiting my house have commented from time to time on the fact that at my house, there's no WEP key or WPA password to get on the network; in fact, if you were to park your car in my driveway and open up your notebook, you can jump onto the network and start browsing away. For years, I've always shrugged and said, "If I can't spot you sitting in my driveway, you deserve the opportunity to attack my network." Fortunately, Bruce Schneier, author of the insanely-good-reading Crypto-Gram newsletter, is in the same camp as I:

My Open Wireless Network

Whenever I talk or write about my own security setup, the one thing that surprises people -- and attracts the most criticism -- is the fact that I run an open wireless network at home.

There's no password. There's no encryption. Anyone with wireless capability who can see my network can use it to access the internet.

To me, it's basic politeness. Providing internet access to guests is kind of like providing heat and electricity, or a hot cup of tea. But to some observers, it's both wrong and dangerous.

I'm told that uninvited strangers may sit in their cars in front of my house, and use my network to send spam, eavesdrop on my passwords, and upload and download everything from pirated movies to child pornography. As a result, I risk all sorts of bad things happening to me, from seeing my IP address blacklisted to having the police crash through my door.

While this is technically true, I don't think it's much of a risk. I can count five open wireless networks in coffee shops within a mile of my house, and any potential spammer is far more likely to sit in a warm room with a cup of coffee and a scone than in a cold car outside my house. And yes, if someone did commit a crime using my network the police might visit, but what better defense is there than the fact that I have an open wireless network? If I enabled wireless security on my network and someone hacked it, I would have a far harder time proving my innocence.

This is not to say that the new wireless security protocol, WPA, isn't very good. It is. But there are going to be security flaws in it; there always are.

I spoke to several lawyers about this, and in their lawyerly way they outlined several other risks with leaving your network open.

While none thought you could be successfully prosecuted just because someone else used your network to commit a crime, any investigation could be time-consuming and expensive. You might have your computer equipment seized, and if you have any contraband of your own on your machine, it could be a delicate situation. Also, prosecutors aren't always the most technically savvy bunch, and you might end up being charged despite your innocence. The lawyers I spoke with say most defense attorneys will advise you to reach a plea agreement rather than risk going to trial on child-pornography charges.

In a less far-fetched scenario, the Recording Industry Association of America is known to sue copyright infringers based on nothing more than an IP address. The accused's chance of winning is higher than in a criminal case, because in civil litigation the burden of proof is lower. And again, lawyers argue that even if you win it's not worth the risk or expense, and that you should settle and pay a few thousand dollars.

I remain unconvinced of this threat, though. The RIAA has conducted about 26,000 lawsuits, and there are more than 15 million music downloaders. Mark Mulligan of Jupiter Research said it best: "If you're a file sharer, you know that the likelihood of you being caught is very similar to that of being hit by an asteroid."

I'm also unmoved by those who say I'm putting my own data at risk, because hackers might park in front of my house, log on to my open network and eavesdrop on my internet traffic or break into my computers.

This is true, but my computers are much more at risk when I use them on wireless networks in airports, coffee shops and other public places. If I configure my computer to be secure regardless of the network it's on, then it simply doesn't matter. And if my computer isn't secure on a public network, securing my own network isn't going to reduce my risk very much.

Yes, computer security is hard. But if your computers leave your house, you have to solve it anyway. And any solution will apply to your desktop machines as well.

Finally, critics say someone might steal bandwidth from me. Despite isolated court rulings that this is illegal, my feeling is that they're welcome to it. I really don't mind if neighbors use my wireless network when they need it, and I've heard several stories of people who have been rescued from connectivity emergencies by open wireless networks in the neighborhood.

Similarly, I appreciate an open network when I am otherwise without bandwidth. If someone were using my network to the point that it affected my own traffic or if some neighbor kid was dinking around, I might want to do something about it; but as long as we're all polite, why should this concern me? Pay it forward, I say.

Certainly this does concern ISPs. Running an open wireless network will often violate your terms of service. But despite the occasional cease-and-desist letter and providers getting pissy at people who exceed some secret bandwidth limit, this isn't a big risk either. The worst that will happen to you is that you'll have to find a new ISP.

A company called Fon has an interesting approach to this problem. Fon wireless access points have two wireless networks: a secure one for you, and an open one for everyone else. You can configure your open network in either "Bill" or "Linus" mode: In the former, people pay you to use your network, and you have to pay to use any other Fon wireless network.

In Linus mode, anyone can use your network, and you can use any other Fon wireless network for free. It's a really clever idea.

Security is always a trade-off. I know people who rarely lock their front door, who drive in the rain (and, while using a cell phone), and who talk to strangers. In my opinion, securing my wireless network isn't worth it. And I appreciate everyone else who keeps an open wireless network, including all the coffee shops, bars and libraries I have visited in the past, the Dayton International Airport where I started writing this, and the Four Points Sheraton where I finished. You all make the world a better place.

I'll admit that he's gone to far greater lengths to justify the open wireless network than I; frankly, the idea that somebody might try to sit in my driveway in order to hack my desktop machine and store kitty porn on it had never occurred to me. I was always far more concerned that somebody might sit on my ISP's server, hack my desktop machine's IP from there and store kitty porn on it. Which is why, like Schneier, I keep any machine that's in my house as up to date as possible. Granted, that doesn't protect me against a zero-day exploit, but if an attacker is that determined to put kitty porn on my machine, I probably couldn't stop them from breaking down my front door while we're all at work and school and loading it on via a CD-ROM, either.

And, at least in my neighborhood, I can (barely) find the signal for a few other wireless networks that are wide open, too, so I know I'm not the only target of opportunity here.So the prospective kitty porn bandit has his choice of machines to attack, and frankly I'll take the odds of my machines being the more hardened targets over my neighbors' machines any day. (Remember, computer security is often an exercise in convincing the bad guy to go play in somebody else's yard. I wish it were otherwise, but until we have effective response and deterrence mechanisms, it's going to remain that way for a long time.)

I've known a lot of people who leave their front doors unlocked--my grandparents lived in rural Illinois for sixty some-odd years in the same house, leaving the front door pretty much unlocked all the time, and the keys to their cars in the drivers' side sun shade, and never in all that time did any seedy character "break in" to their home or steal their car. (Hell, after my grandfather died a few years ago, the kids--my mom and her siblings--descended on the place to get rid of a ton of the junk he'd collected over the years. I think they would have welcomed a seedy character trying to make off with the stuff at that point.)

Point is, as Schneier points out in the last paragraph, security is always a trade-off, and we must never lose sight of that fact. Remember, dogma is the root of all evil, and should never be considered a substitute for reasoned thought processes.

And meanwhile, friends, when you come to my house to visit, enjoy the wireless, the heat, and the electricity. If you're nice, we may even let you borrow chair for a while, too. :-)