With my most recent blog post, some of you were a little less than impressed with the idea of using types, One reader, in particular, suggested that:

Your encapsulating type aliases don't... encapsulate :|

Actually, it kinda does. But not in the way you described.

using X = qualified.type;

merely introduces an alias, and will consequently (a) not prevent assignment of
a FirstName to a LastName (b) not even be detectible as such from CLI metadata
(i.e. using reflection).

This is true—the using statement only introduces an alias, in much the same way that C++’s “typedef” does. It’s not perfect, by any real means.

Also, the alias is lexically scoped, and doesn't actually _declare a public name_ (so, it would need to be redeclared in all 'client' compilation units.

(This won't be done, of course, because the clients would have no clue about
this and happily be passing `System.String` as ever).

The same goes for C++ typedefs, or, indeed C++11 template aliases:

using FirstName = std::string;
using LastName = std::string;

You'd be better off using BOOST_STRONG_TYPEDEF (or a roll-your-own version of this thing that is basically a CRTP pattern with some inherited constructors. When your compiler has the latter feature, you could probably do without an evil MACRO).

All of which is also true. Frankly, the “using” statement is a temporary stopgap, simply a placeholder designed to say, “In time, this will be replaced with a full-fledged type.”

And even more to the point, he fails to point out that my “Age” class from my example doesn’t really encapsulate the fact that Age is, fundamentally, an “int” under the covers—because Age possesses type conversion operators to convert it into an int on demand (hence the “implicit” in that operator declaration), it’s pretty easy to get it back to straight “int”-land. Were I not so concerned with brevity, I’d have created a type that allowed for addition on it, though frankly I probably would forbid subtraction, and most certainly multiplication and division. (What does multiplying an Age mean, really?)

See, in truth, I cheated, because I know that the first reaction most O-O developers will have is, “Are you crazy? That’s tons more work—just use the int!” Which, is both fair, and an old argument—the C guys said the same thing about these “object” things, and how much work it was compared to just declaring a data structure and writing a few procedures to manipulate them. Creating a full-fledged type for each domain—or each fraction of a domain—seems… heavy.

Truthfully, this is much easier to do in F#. And in Scala. And in a number of different languages. Unfortunately, in C#, Java, and even C++ (and frankly, I don’t think the use of an “evil MACRO” is unwarranted, if it doesn’t promote bad things). The fact that “doing it right” in those languages means “doing a ton of work to get it right” is exactly why nobody does it—and suffers the commensurate loss of encapsulation and integrity in their domain model.

Another poster pointed out that there is a much better series on this at http://www.fsharpforfunandprofit.com. In particular, check out the series on "Designing with Types"—it expresses everything I wanted to say, albeit in F# (where I was trying, somewhat unsuccessfully, to example-code it in C#). By the way, I suspect that almost every linguistic feature he uses would translate pretty easily/smoothly over to Scala (or possibly Clojure) as well.

Another poster pointed out that doing this type-driven design (TDD, anyone?) would create some serious havoc with your persistence. Cry me a river, and then go use a persistence model that fits an object-oriented and type-oriented paradigm. Like, I dunno, an object database. Particularly considering that you shouldn’t want to expose your database schema to anyone outside the project anyway, if you’re concerned about code being tightly coupled. (As in, any other code outside this project—like a reporting engine or an ETL process—that accesses your database directly now is tied to that schema, and is therefore a tight-coupling restriction on evolving your schema.)

Achieving good encapsulation isn’t a matter of trying to hide the methods being used—it’s (partly) a matter of allowing the type system to carry a significant percentage of the cognitive load, so that you don’t have to. Which, when you think on it, is kinda what objects and strongly-typed type systems are supposed to do, isn’t it?

Recently, having been teaching C# for a bit at Bellevue College, I’ve been thinking more and more about the way in which we approach building object-oriented programs, and particularly the debates around types and type systems. I think, not surprisingly, that the way in which the vast majority of the O-O developers in the world approach types and when/how they use them is flat wrong—both in terms of the times when they create classes when they shouldn’t (or shouldn’t have to, anyway, though obviously this is partly a measure of their language), and the times when they should create classes and don’t.

The latter point is the one I feel like exploring here; the former one is certainly interesting on its own, but I’ll save that for a later date. For now, I want to think about (and write about) how we often don’t create types in an O-O program, and should, because doing so can often create clearer, more expressive programs.

A Person

Common object-oriented parlance suggests that when we have a taxonomical entity that we want to represent in code (i.e., a concept of some form), we use a class to do so; for example, if we want to model a “person” in the world by capturing some of their critical attributes, we do so using a class (in this case, C#):

class Person
{
    public string FirstName { get; set; }
    public string LastName { get; set; }
    public int Age { get; set; }
    public bool Gender { get; set; }
}

Granted, this is a pretty simplified case; O-O enthusiasts will find lots of things wrong with this code, most of which have to do with dealing with the complexities that can arise.

From here, there’s a lot of ways in which this conversation can get a lot more complicated—how, where and when should inheritance factor into the discussion, for example, and how exactly do we represent the relationship between parents and children (after all, some children will be adopted, some will be natural birth, some will be disowned) and the relationship between various members who wish to engage in some form of marital status (putting aside the political hot-button of same-sex marriage, we find that some states respect “civil unions” even where no formal ceremony has taken place, many cultures still recognize polygamy—one man, many wives—as Utah did up until the mid-1800s, and a growing movement around polyamory—one or more men, one or more women—looks like it may be the next political hot-button around marriage) definitely depends on the business issues in question…

… but that’s the whole point of encapsulation, right? That if the business needs change, we can adapt as necessary to the changed requirements without having to go back and rewrite everything.

Genders

Consider, for example, the rather horrible decision to represent “gender” as a boolean: while, yes, at birth, there are essentially two genders at the biological level, there are some interesting birth defects/disorders/conditions in which a person’s gender is, for lack of a better term, screwed up—men born with female plumbing and vice versa. The system might need to track that. Or, there are those who consider themselves to have been born into the wrong gender, and choose to live a lifestyle that is markedly different from what societal norms suggest (the transgender crowd). Or, in some cases, the gender may not have even been determined yet: fetuses don’t develop gender until about halfway through the pregnancy.

Which suggests, offhand, that the use of a boolean here is clearly a Bad Idea. But what suggests as its replacement? Certainly we could maintain an internal state string or something similar, using the get/set properties to verify that the strings being set are correct and valid, but the .NET type system has a better answer: Given that there is a finite number of choices to gender—whether that’s two or four or a dozen—it seems that an enumeration is a good replacement:

enum Gender
{
    Male, Female,
    Indeterminate,
    Transgender
}

class Person
{
    public string FirstName { get; set; }
    public string LastName { get; set; }
    public int Age { get; set; }
    public Gender Gender { get; set; }
}

Don’t let the fact that the property and the type have the same name be too confusing—not only does it compile cleanly, but it actually provides some clear description of what’s being stored. (Although, I’ll admit, it’s confusing the first time you look at it.) More importantly, there’s no additional code that needs to be written to enforce only the four acceptable values—or, extend it as necessary when that becomes necessary.

Ages

Similarly, the age of a person is not an integer value—people cannot be negative age, nor do they usually age beyond a hundred or so. Again, we could put code around the get/set blocks of the Age property to ensure the proper values, but it would again be easier to let the type system do all the work:

struct Age
{
    int data;
    public Age(int d)
    {
        Validate(d);
        data = d;
    }

    public static void Validate(int d)
    {
        if (d < 0)
            throw new ArgumentException("Age cannot be negative");
        if (d > 120)
            throw new ArgumentException("Age cannot be over 120");
    }

    // explicit int to Age conversion operator
    public static implicit operator Age(int a)
    { return new Age(a); }

    // explicit Age to int conversion operator
    public static implicit operator int(Age a)
    { return a.data; }
}

class Person
{
    public string FirstName { get; set; }
    public string LastName { get; set; }
    public Age Age { get; set; }
    public Gender Gender { get; set; }
}

Notice that we’re still having to write the same code, but now the code is embodied in a type, which is itself intrinsically reusable—we can reuse the Age type in other classes, which is more than we can say if that code lives in the Person.Age property getter/setter. Again, too, now the Person class really has nothing to do in terms of ensuring that age is maintained properly (and by that, I mean greater than zero and less than 120). (The “implicit” in the conversion operators means that the code doesn’t need to explicitly cast the int to an Age or vice versa.)

Technically, what I’ve done with Age is create a restriction around the integer (System.Int32 in .NET terms) type; were this XSD Schema types, I could do a derivation-by-restriction to restrict an xsd:int to the values I care about (0 – 120, inclusive). Unfortunately, no O-O language I know of permits derivation-by-restriction, so it requires work to create a type that “wraps” another, in this case, an Int32.

Names

Names are another point of problem, in that there’s all kinds of crazy cases that (as much as we’d like to pretend otherwise) turn out to be far more common than we’d like—not only do most people have middle names, but sometimes women will take their husband’s last name and hyphenate it with their own, making it sort of a middle name but not really, or sometimes people will give their children to multiple middle names, Japanese names put family names first, sometimes people choose to take a single name, and so on. This is again a case where we can either choose to bake that logic into property getters/setters, or bake it into a single type (a “Name” type) that has the necessary code and properties to provide all the functionality that a person’s name represents.

So, without getting into the actual implementation, then, if we want to represent names in the system, then we should have a full-fledged “Name” class that captures the various permutations that arise:

class Name
{  
    public Title Honorific { get { ... } }
    public string Individual { get { ... } }
    public string Nickname { get { ... } }
    public string Family { get { ... } }
    public string Full { get { ... } }
    public static Name Parse(string incoming) { ... } 
}

See, ultimately, everything will have to boil back to the core primitives within the language, but we need to build stronger primitives for the system—Name, Title, Age, and don’t even get me started on relationships.

Relationships

Parent-child relationships are also a case where things are vastly more complicated than just the one-to-many or one-to-one (or two-to-one) that direct object references encourage; in the case of families, given how complex the modern American family can get (and frankly, it’s not any easier if we go back and look at medieval families, either—go have a look at any royal European genealogical line and think about how you’d model that, particularly Henry VIII), it becomes pretty quickly apparent that modeling the relationships themselves often presents itself as the only reasonable solution.

I won’t even begin to get into that example, by the way, simply because this blog post is too long as it is. I might try it for a later blog post to explore the idea further, but I think the point is made at this point.

Summary

The object-oriented paradigm often finds itself wading in tens of thousands of types, so it seems counterintuitive to suggest that we need more of them to make programs more clear. I agree, many O-O programs are too type-heavy, but part of the problem there is that we’re spending too much time creating classes that we shouldn’t need to create (DTOs and the like) and not enough time thinking about the actual entities in the system.

I’ll be the first to admit, too, that not all systems will need to treat names the way that I’ve done—sometimes an age is just an integer, and we’re OK with that. Truthfully, though, it seems more often than not that we’re later adding the necessary code to ensure that ages can never be negative, have to fall within a certain range, and so on.

As a suggestion, then, I throw out this idea: Ensure that all of your domain classes never expose primitive types to the user of the system. In other words, Name never exposes an “int” for Age, but only an “Age” type. C# makes this easy via “using” declarations, like so:

using FirstName = System.String;
using LastName = System.String;

which can then, if you’re thorough and disciplined about using the FirstName and LastName types instead of “string”, evolve into fully-formed types later in their own right if they need to. C++ provides “typedef” for this purpose—unfortunately, Java lacks any such facility, making this a much harder prospect. (This is something I’d stick at the top of my TODO list were I nominated to take Brian Goetz’s place at the head of Java9 development.)

In essence, encapsulate the primitive types away so that when they don’t need to be primitives, or when they need to be more complex than just simple holders of data, they don’t have to be, and clients will never know the difference. That, folks, is what encapsulation is trying to be about.

As is pretty typical for that site, Lambda the Ultimate has a great discussion on some insights that the creators of Mozart and Oz have come to, regarding the design of programming languages; I repeat the post here for convenience:

Now that we are close to releasing Mozart 2 (a complete redesign of the Mozart system), I have been thinking about how best to summarize the lessons we learned about programming paradigms in CTM. Here are five "laws" that summarize these lessons:

1. A well-designed program uses the right concepts, and the paradigm follows from the concepts that are used. [Paradigms are epiphenomena]
2. A paradigm with more concepts than another is not better or worse, just different. [Paradigm paradox]
3. Each problem has a best paradigm in which to program it; a paradigm with less concepts makes the program more complicated and a paradigm with more concepts makes reasoning more complicated. [Best paradigm principle]
4. If a program is complicated for reasons unrelated to the problem being solved, then a new concept should be added to the paradigm. [Creative extension principle]
5. A program's interface should depend only on its externally visible functionality, not on the paradigm used to implement it. [Model independence principle]

Here a "paradigm" is defined as a formal system that defines how computations are done and that leads to a set of techniques for programming and reasoning about programs. Some commonly used paradigms are called functional programming, object-oriented programming, and logic programming. The term "best paradigm" can have different meanings depending on the ultimate goal of the programming project; it usually refers to a paradigm that maximizes some combination of good properties such as clarity, provability, maintainability, efficiency, and extensibility. I am curious to see what the LtU community thinks of these laws and their formulation.

There are times when the industry in which I find myself does things that I just don't understand.

Consider, for a moment, this blog by Jeff Handley, in which he essentially says that the phrase "We accept pull requests" is "cringe-inducing":

Why do the words “we accept pull requests” have such a stigma? Why were they cringe-inducing when I spoke them? Because too many OSS projects use these words as an easy way to shut people up. We (the collective of OSS project owners) can too easily jump to this phrase when we don’t want to do something ourselves. If we don’t see the value in a feature, but the requester persists, we can simply utter, “We accept pull requests,” and drop it until the end of days or when a pull request is submitted, whichever comes first. The phrase now basically means, “Buzz off!”

At Microsoft, having open source projects that actually accept pull requests is a fairly new concept. I work on NuGet, which is an Outercurve project that accepts contributions from Microsoft and many others. I was the dev lead for Razor and Web Pages at the time it went open source through Microsoft Open Tech. I collaborate with teams that work on EntityFramework, SignalR, MVC, and several other open source projects. I spend virtually all my time thinking about projects that are open source. Just a few years ago, this was unimaginable at Microsoft. Sometimes I feel like it still hasn’t sunk in how awesome it is that we have gotten to where we are, and I think I’ve been trigger happy and I’ve said “We accept pull requests” too often I typically use the phrase in jest, but I admit that I have said it when I was really thinking “Buzz off!”

The weekend after the MVP summit, I was still regretting having said what I said. I wished all week I could take the words back. And then I saw someone else fall victim. On a highly controversial NuGet issue, the infamous Phil Haack used a similar phrase as part of a response stating that the core team probably wouldn’t be taking action on the proposed changes, but that there was nothing stopping those affected from issuing a pull request. With my mistake still fresh in my mind, I read Phil’s words just as I’m sure everyone in the room at the MVP summit heard my own. It sounded flippant and it had the opposite effect from what Phil intended or what I would want people thinking of the NuGet core team. From there, the thread started turning nasty. We were stuck arguing opinions and we were no longer discussing the actual issue and how it could be solved.

With that many mentions on the tweets, we ran out of characters and eventually moved into JabbR. By the end of the conversation, we all agreed that the words “we accept pull requests” should never be used again. Phil proposed a great phrase to use instead: “Want to take a crack at it? We’ll help.”

What I don't like about the new phrase is twofold. First, if people use the phrase casually enough, eventually it too will be overused and interpreted to mean "Buzz off!", just as "Thank you for your feedback" became. But secondly, where in the world did it somehow become a law that open source projects MUST implement every feature that their users suggest? This is part of the strange economics of open source--in a commercial product, if the developers stray too far away from what customers need or want, declining sales will serve as a corrective force to bring them back around (or, if they don't, bankruptcy of either the product or the company will eventually follow). But in an open-source project, there's no real visible marker to serve as that accountability and feedback--and so the project owners, those who want to try and stay in tune with their users anyway, feel a deeper responsibility to respond to user requests. And on its own, that's a good thing.

The part that bothers me, though, is that this new phraseology essentially implies that any open-source project has a responsibility to implement the features that its users ask for, and frankly, that's not sustainable. Open-source projects are, for the most part, maintained by volunteers, but even those that are backed by commercial firms (like Microsoft or GitHub) have finite resources--they simply cannot commit resources, even just "help", to every feature request that any user makes of them. This is why the "We accept pull requests" was always, to my mind, an acceptable response: loosely translated, to me at least, it meant, "Look, that's an interesting idea, but it either isn't on our immediate roadmap, or it takes the project in a different direction than we'd intended, or we're not even entirely sure that it's feasible or doable or easily managed or what-have-you. Why don't you take a stab at implementing it in your own fork of the code, and if you can get it to some point of implementation that you can show us, send us a copy of the code in the form of a pull request so we can take a look and see if it fits with how we see the project going." This is not an unreasonable response: if you care passionately about this feature, either because you think it should be there or because your company needs that feature to get its work done, then you have the time, energy and motivation to at least take a first pass at it and prove the concept (or, sometimes, prove to yourself that it's not such an easy request as you thought). Cultivating a sense of entitlement in your users is not a good practice--it's a step towards a completely unsustainable model that could, if not curbed, eventually lead to the death of the project as the maintainers essentially give up when faced with feature request after feature request.

I applaud the efforts on the part of project maintainers, particularly those at large commercial corporations involved in open source, to avoid "Buzz off" phrases. But it's not OK for project maintainers to feel like they are under a responsibility to implement any particular feature or idea suggested by a user. Some ideas are going to be good ones, some are going to be just "off the radar" of the project's core committers, and some are going to be just plain bad. You think your idea is one of those? Take a stab at it. Write the code. And if you've got it to a point where it seems to be working, then submit a pull request.

But please, let's not blow this out of proportion. Users need to cut the people who give them software for free some slack.

(EDIT: I accidentally referred to Jeff as "Anthony" in one place and "Andrew" in another. Not really sure how or why, but... Edited.)

Charlie Kindel blogs that he thinks James Gosling (and the rest of Sun) screwed us all with Java and it's "Write Once, Run Anywhere" mantra. It's catchy, but it's wrong.

Like a lot of Charlie's blogs, he nails parts of this one squarely on the head:

WORA was, is, and always will be, a fallacy. ... It is the “Write once…“ part that’s the most dangerous. We all wish the world was rainbows and unicorns, and “Write once…” implies that there is a world where you can actually write an app once and it will run on all devices. But this is precisely the fantasy that the platform vendors will never allow to become reality. ...

HTML5 is awesome in many ways. If applied judiciously, it can be a great technology and tool. As a tool, it can absolutely be used to reduce the amount of platform specific code you have to write. But it is not a starting place. Starting with HTML5 is the most customer unfriendly thing a developer can do. ... Like many ‘solutions’ in our industry the “Hey, write it once in in HTML5 and it will run anywhere” story didn’t actually start with the end-user customer. It started with idealistic thoughts about technology. It was then turned into snake oil for developers. Not only is the “build a mobile app that hosts a web view that contains HTML5″ approach bass-ackwards, it is a recipe for execution disaster. Yes, there are examples of teams that have built great apps using this technique, but if you actually look at what they did, they focused on their experience first and then made the technology work. What happens when the shop starts with “we gotta use HTML5 running in a UIWebView” is initial euphoria over productivity, followed by incredible pain doing the final 20%.

In fact, about the only part of Charlie's blog post that I disagree with is the part where he blames Gosling and Java:

I blame James Gosling. He foisted Java on us and as a result Sun coined the term Write Once Run Anywhere. ... Developers really want to believe it is possible to “Write once…”. They also really want to believe that more threads will help. But we all know they just make the problems worse. Just as we’ve all grown to accept that starting with “make it multi-threaded” is evil, we need to accept “Write once…” is evil.

And that, folks, is the heart of the matter: long before Gosling took his fledgling failed set-top box Oak-named project and looked around for a space to which to apply it next, developers... no, let's get that right, "developers and their managers who hate the idea of violating DRY by having the code in umpteen different codebases" have been looking for ways to have a single source base that runs across all the platforms. We've tried it with portable languages (see C, C++, Java, for starters), portable libraries (in the C++ space see Zinc, zApp, XVT, Tools.h++), portable containers (see EJB, the web browser), and now portable platforms (see PhoneGap/Cordova, Titanium, etc), portable cross-compilers (see MonoTouch/MonoDroid, for recent examples), and I'm sure there will be other efforts along these lines for years and decades to come. It's a noble goal, but the major players in the space to which we are targeting--whether that be operating systems, browsers, mobile platforms, console game devices, or whatever comes next two decades from now--will not allow their systems to be commoditized that easily. Because at the heart of it, that's exactly what these "cross-platform" tools and languages and libraries are trying to do: reduce the underlying "thing" to a commodity that lacks interest or impact.

Interestingly enough, as a side-note, one thing I'm starting to notice is that the more pervasive mobile devices become and the more mobile applications we see reaching those devices, the less and less "device-standard" those interfaces are trying to look even as they try to achieve cross-platform similarities. Consider, for a moment, the Fly Delta app on iPhone: it doesn't really use any of the standard iOS UI metaphors (except for some of the basic ones), largely because they've defined their own look-and-feel across all the platforms they support (iOS and Android, at least so far). Ditto for the CNN and USA Today apps, as well as the ESPN app, and of course just about every game ever written for any of those platforms. So even as Charlie argues:

The problem is each major platform has its own UI model, its own model for how a web view is hosted, its own HTML rendering engine, and its own JavaScript engine. These inter-platform differences mean that not only is the platform-specific code unique, but the interactions between that code and the code running within the web view becomes device specific. And to make matters worse intra-platform fragmentation, particularly on the platform with the largest number of users, Android, is so bad that this “Write Once..” approach provides no help.

While cruising through the Internet a few minute ago, I wandered across Meteor, which looks like a really cool tool/system/platform/whatever for building modern web applications. JavaScript on the front, JavaScript on the back, Mongo backing, it's definitely something worth looking into, IMHO.

Thus emboldened, I decide to look at how to start playing with it, and lo and behold I discover that the instructions for installation are:

curl https://install.meteor.com | sh

Now, I'm sure the Meteor folks are all nice people, and they're making sure (via the use of the https URL) that whatever is piped into my shell is, in fact, coming from their servers, but I don't know these people from Adam or Eve, and that's taking an awfully big risk on my part, just letting them pipe whatever-the-hell-they-want into a shell Terminal. Hell, you don't even need root access to fill my hard drive with whatever random bits of goo you wanted.

I looked at the shell script, and it's all OK, mind you--the Meteor people definitely look trustworthy, I want to reassure anyone of that. But I'm really, really hoping that this is NOT their preferred mechanism for delivery... nor is it anyone's preferred mechanism for delivery... because that's got a gaping security hole in it about twelve miles wide. It's just begging for some random evil hacker to post a website saying, "Hey, all, I've got his really cool framework y'all should try..." and bury the malware inside the code somewhere.

Which leads to today's Random Thought Experiment of the Day: How long would it take the open source community to discover malware buried inside of an open-source package, particularly one that's in widespread use, a la Apache or Tomcat or JBoss? (Assume all the core committers were in on it--how many people, aside from the core committers, actually look at the source of the packages we download and install, sometimes under root permissions?)

Not saying we should abandon open source; just saying we should be responsible citizens about who we let in our front door.

UPDATE: Having done the install, I realize that it's a two-step download... the shell script just figures out which OS you're on, which tool (curl or wget) to use, and asks you for root access to download and install the actual distribution. Which, honestly, I didn't look at. So, here's hoping the Meteor folks are as good as I'm assuming them to be....

Still highlights that this is a huge security risk.

I don't know Heather Arthur from Eve. Never met her, never read an article by her, seen a video she's in or shot, or seen her code. Matter of fact, I don't even know that she is a "she"--I'm just guessing from the name.

But apparently she got quite an ugly reaction from a few folks when she open-sourced some code:

So I went to see what people were saying about this project. I searched Twitter and several tweets came up. One of them, I guess the original one, was basically like “hey, this is cool”, but then the rest went like this:
"I cannot even make this stuff up." --@steveklabnik
"Ever wanted to make sed or grep worse?" --@zeeg
"@steveklabnik or just point to the actual code file. eyes bleeding!" --@coreyhaines
At this point, all I know is that by creating this project I’ve done something very wrong. It seemed liked I’d done something fundamentally wrong, so stupid that it flabbergasts someone. So wrong that it doesn’t even need to be explained. And my code is so bad it makes people’s eyes bleed. So of course I start sobbing.

I'm criticizing because this is what "software craftsmanship" gets us: an imposed segregation of those who "get it" from those who "don't" based on somebody's arbitrary criteria of what we should or shouldn't be doing. And if somebody doesn't use the "right" tools or code it in the "right" way, then bam! You clearly aren't a "craftsman" (or "craftswoman"?) and you clearly don't care about your craft and you clearly aren't worth the time or energy necessary to support and nourish and grow and....

Frankly, I've not been a fan of this movement since its inception. Dave Thomas (Ruby Dave) was on a software panel with me at a No Fluff Just Stuff show about five years ago when we got on to this subject, and Dave said, point blank, "About half of the programmers in the world should just go take up farming." He paused, and in the moment that followed, I said, "Wow, Dave, way to insult half the room." He immediately pointed out that the people in the room were part of the first half, since they were at a conference, but it just sort of underscored to me how high-handed and high-minded that kind of talk and position can be.

Not all of us writing code have to be artists. Frankly, in the world of painting, there are those who will spend hours and days and months, tiny brushes in hand, jars of pigment just one lumens different from one another, laboring over the finest details, creating just one piece... and then there are those who paint houses with paint-sprayers, out of cans of mass-produced "Cream Beige" found at your local Lowes. And you know what? We need both of them.

I will now coin a term that I consider to be the opposite of "software craftsman": the "software laborer". In my younger days, believing myself to be one of those "craftsmen", a developer who knew C++ in and out, who understood memory management and pointers, who could create elegant and useful solutions in templates and classes and inheritance, I turned up my nose at those "laborers" who cranked out one crappy app after another in (what else?) Visual Basic. My app was tight, lean, and well-tuned; their apps were sloppy, bloated, and ugly. My app was a paragon of reused code; their apps were cut-and-paste cobbled-together duct-tape wonders. My app was a shining beacon on a hill for all the world to admire; their apps were mindless drones, slogging through the mud.... Yeah, OK, so you get the idea.

But the funny thing was, those "laborers" were going home at 5 every day. Me, I was staying sometimes until 9pm, wallowing in the wonderment of my code. And, I have to wonder, how much of that was actually not the wonderment of my code, but the wonderment of "me" over the wonderment of "code".

Speaking of, by the way, there appear to be the makings of another such false segregation, in the areas of "functional programming". In defense of Elliott Rusty Harold's blog the other day (which I criticized, and still stand behind, for the reasons I cited there), there are a lot of programmers that are falling into the trap of thinking that "all the cool kids are using functional programming, so if I want to be a cool kid, I have to use functional programming too, even though I'm not sure what I'm doing....". Not all the cool kids are using FP. Some aren't even using OOP. Some are just happily humming along using good ol' fashioned C. And producing some really quality stuff doing so.

See, I have to wonder just how much of the software "craftsmanship" being touted isn't really a narcissistic "Look at me, world! Look at how much better I am because I care about what I do! Look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair!" kind of mentality. Too much of software "craftsmanship" seems to be about the "me" part of "my code". And when I think about why that is, I come to an interesting assertion: That if we take the name away from the code, and just look at the code, we can't really tell what's "elegant" code, what's "hack" code, and what was "elegant hack because there were all these other surrounding constraints outside the code". Without the context, we can't tell.

A few years after my high point as a C++ "craftsman", I was asked to do a short, one-week programming gig/assignment, and the more I looked at it, the more it screamed "VB" at me. And I discovered that what would've taken me probably a month to do in C++ was easily accomplished in a few days in VB. I remember looking at the code, and feeling this sickening, sinking sense of despair at how stupid I must've looked, crowing. VB isn't a bad language--and neither is C++. Or Java. Or C#. Or Groovy, or Scala, or Python, or, heck, just about any language you choose to name. (Except Perl. I refuse to cave on that point. Mostly for comedic effect.)

But more importantly, somebody who comes in at 9, does what they're told, leaves at 5, and never gives a rat's ass about programming except for what they need to know to get their job done, I have respect for them. Yes, some people will want to hold themselves up as "painters", and others will just show up at your house at 8 in the morning with drop cloths. Both have their place in the world. Neither should be denigrated for their choices about how they live their lives or manage their careers. (Yes, there's a question of professional ethics--I want the house painters to make sure they do a good job, too, but quality can come just as easily from the nozzle of a spray painter as it does from the tip of a paintbrush.)

I end this with one of my favorite parables from Japanese lore:

Several centuries ago, a tea master worked in the service of Lord Yamanouchi. No-one else performed the way of the tea to such perfection. The timing and the grace of his every move, from the unfurling of mat, to the setting out of the cups, and the sifting of the green leaves, was beauty itself. His master was so pleased with his servant, that he bestowed upon him the rank and robes of a Samurai warrior.

When Lord Yamanouchi travelled, he always took his tea master with him, so that others could appreciate the perfection of his art. On one occasion, he went on business to the great city of Edo, which we now know as Tokyo.

When evening fell, the tea master and his friends set out to explore the pleasure district, known as the floating world. As they turned the corner of a wooden pavement, they found themselves face to face with two Samurai warriors.

The tea master bowed, and politely step into the gutter to let the fearsome ones pass. But although one warrior went by, the other remained rooted to the spot. He stroked a long black whisker that decorated his face, gnarled by the sun, and scarred by the sword. His eyes pierced through the tea maker’s heart like an arrow.

He did not quite know what to make of the fellow who dressed like a fellow Samurai, yet who would willingly step aside into a gutter. What kind of warrior was this? He looked him up and down. Where were broad shoulders and the thick neck of a man of force and muscle? Instinct told him that this was no soldier. He was an impostor who by ignorance or impudence had donned the uniform of a Samurai. He snarled: “Tell me, oh strange one, where are you from and what is your rank?”

The tea master bowed once more. “It is my honour to serve Lord Yamanouchi and I am his master of the way of the tea.”

“A tea-sprout who dares to wear the robes of Samurai?” exclaimed the rough warrior.

The tea master’s lip trembled. He pressed his hands together and said: “My lord has honoured me with the rank of a Samurai and he requires me to wear these robes. “

The warrior stamped the ground like a raging a bull and exclaimed: “He who wears the robes of a Samurai must fight like a Samurai. I challenge you to a duel. If you die with dignity, you will bring honour to your ancestors. And if you die like a dog, at least you will be no longer insult the rank of the Samurai !”

By now, the hairs on the tea master’s neck were standing on end like the feet of a helpless centipede that has been turned upside down. He imagined he could feel that edge of the Samurai blade against his skin. He thought that his last second on earth had come.

But the corner of the street was no place for a duel with honour. Death is a serious matter, and everything has to be arranged just so. The Samurai’s friend spoke to the tea master’s friends, and gave them the time and the place for the mortal contest.

When the fierce warriors had departed, the tea master’s friends fanned his face and treated his faint nerves with smelling salts. They steadied him as they took him into a nearby place of rest and refreshment. There they assured him that there was no need to fear for his life. Each one of them would give freely of money from his own purse, and they would collect a handsome enough sum to buy the warrior off and make him forget his desire to fight a duel. And if by chance the warrior was not satisfied with the bribe, then surely Lord Yamanouchi would give generously to save his much prized master of the way of the tea.

But these generous words brought no cheer to the tea master. He thought of his family, and his ancestors, and of Lord Yamanouchi himself, and he knew that he must not bring them any reason to be ashamed of him.

“No,” he said with a firmness that surprised his friends. “I have one day and one night to learn how to die with honour, and I will do so.”

And so speaking, he got up and returned alone to the court of Lord Yamanouchi. There he found his equal in rank, the master of fencing, he was skilled as no other in the art of fighting with a sword.

“Master,” he said, when he had explained his tale, “Teach me to die like a Samurai.”

But the master of fencing was a wise man, and he had a great respect for the master of the Tea ceremony. And so he said: “I will teach you all you require, but first, I ask that you perform the way of the Tea for me one last time.”

The tea master could not refuse this request. As he performed the ceremony, all trace of fear seemed to leave his face. He was serenely concentrated on the simple but beautiful cups and pots, and the delicate aroma of the leaves. There was no room in his mind for anxiety. His thoughts were focused on the ritual.

When the ceremony was complete, the fencing master slapped his thigh and exclaimed with pleasure : “There you have it. No need to learn anything of the way of death. Your state of mind when you perform the tea ceremony is all that is required. When you see your challenger tomorrow, imagine that you are about to serve tea for him. Salute him courteously, express regret that you could not meet him sooner, take of your coat and fold it as you did just now. Wrap your head in a silken scarf and and do it with the same serenity as you dress for the tea ritual. Draw your sword, and hold it high above your head. Then close your eyes and ready yourself for combat. “

And that is exactly what the tea master did when, the following morning, at the crack of dawn he met his opponent. The Samurai warrior had been expecting a quivering wreck and he was amazed by the tea master’s presence of mind as he prepared himself for combat. The Samurai’s eyes were opened and he saw a different man altogether. He thought he must have fallen victim to some kind of trick or deception ,and now it was he who feared for his life. The warrior bowed, asked to be excused for his rude behaviour, and left the place of combat with as much speed and dignity as he could muster.

My name is Ted Neward. And I bow with respect to the "software laborers" of the world, who churn out quality code without concern for "craftsmanship", because their lives are more than just their code.

Once again, it's time for my annual prognostication and review of last year's efforts. For those of you who've been long-time readers, you know what this means, but for those two or three of you who haven't seen this before, let's set the rules: if I got a prediction right from last year, you take a drink, and if I didn't, you take a drink. (Best. Drinking game. EVAR!)

Let's begin....

Recap: 2012 Predictions

THEN: Lisps will be the languages to watch.

With Clojure leading the way, Lisps (that is, languages that are more or less loosely based on Common Lisp or one of its variants) are slowly clawing their way back into the limelight. Lisps are both functional languages as well as dynamic languages, which gives them a significant reason for interest. Clojure runs on top of the JVM, which makes it highly interoperable with other JVM languages/systems, and Clojure/CLR is the version of Clojure for the CLR platform, though there seems to be less interest in it in the .NET world (which is a mistake, if you ask me).

NOW: Clojure is definitely cementing itself as a "critic's darling" of a language among the digital cognoscenti, but I don't see its uptake increasing--or decreasing. It seems that, like so many critic's darlings, those who like it are using it, and those who aren't have either never heard of it (the far more likely scenario) or don't care for it. Datomic, a NoSQL written by the creator of Clojure (Rich Hickey), is interesting, but I've not heard of many folks taking it up, either. And Clojure/CLR is all but dead, it seems. I score myself a "0" on this one.

THEN: Functional languages will....

I have no idea. As I said above, I'm kind of stymied on the whole functional-language thing and their future. I keep thinking they will either "take off" or "drop off", and they keep tacking to the middle, doing neither, just sort of hanging in there as a concept for programmers to take and run with. Mind you, I like functional languages, and I want to see them become mainstream, or at least more so, but I keep wondering if the mainstream programming public is ready to accept the ideas and concepts hiding therein. So this year, let's try something different: I predict that they will remain exactly where they are, neither "done" nor "accepted", but continue next year to sort of hang out in the middle.

NOW: Functional concepts are slowly making their way into the mainstream of programming topics, but in some cases, programmers seem to be picking-and-choosing which of the functional concepts they believe in. I've heard developers argue vehemently about "lazy values" but go "meh" about lack-of-side-effects, or vice versa. Moreover, it seems that developers are still taking an "object-first, functional-when-I-need-it" kind of approach, which seems a little object-heavy, if you ask me. So, since the concepts seem to be taking some sort of shallow root, I don't know that I get the point for this one, but at the same time, it's not like I was wildly off. So, let's say "0" again.

THEN: F#'s type providers will show up in C# v.Next.

This one is actually a "gimme", if you look across the history of F# and C#: for almost every version of F# v."N", features from that version show up in C# v."N+1". More importantly, F# 3.0's type provider feature is an amazing idea, and one that I think will open up language research in some very interesting ways. (Not sure what F#'s type providers are or what they'll do for you? Check out Don Syme's talk on it at BUILD last year.)

NOW: C# v.Next hasn't been announced yet, so I can't say that this one has come true. We should start hearing some vague rumors out of Redmond soon, though, so maybe 2013 will be the year that C# gets type providers (or some scaled-back version thereof). Again, a "0".

THEN: Windows8 will generate a lot of chatter.

As 2012 progresses, Microsoft will try to force a lot of buzz around it by keeping things under wraps until various points in the year that feel strategic (TechEd, BUILD, etc). In doing so, though, they will annoy a number of people by not talking about them more openly or transparently.

NOW: Oh, my, did they. Windows8 was announced with a bang, but Microsoft (and Sinofsky, who ran the OS division up until recently) decided that they could go it alone and leave critical partners (like Dropbox!) out of the loop entirely. As a result, the Windows8 Store didn't have a lot of apps in it that people (including myself) really expected would be there. And THEN, there was Surface... which took everybody by surprise, as near as I can tell. Totally under wraps. I'm scoring myself "+2" for that one.

THEN: Windows8 ("Metro")-style apps won't impress at first.

The more I think about it, the more I'm becoming convinced that Metro-style apps on a desktop machine are going to collectively underwhelm. The UI simply isn't designed for keyboard-and-mouse kinds of interaction, and that's going to be the hardware setup that most people first experience Windows8 on--contrary to what (I think) Microsoft thinks, people do not just have tablets laying around waiting for Windows 8 to be installed on it, nor are they going to buy a Windows8 tablet just to try it out, at least not until it's gathered some mojo behind it. Microsoft is going to have to finesse the messaging here very, very finely, and that's not something they've shown themselves to be particularly good at over the last half-decade.

NOW: I find myself somewhat at a loss how to score this one--on the one hand, the "used-to-be-called-Metro"-style applications aren't terrible, and I haven't really heard anyone complain about them tremendously, but at the same time, I haven't heard anyone really go wild and ga-ga over them, either. Part of that, I think, is because there just aren't a lot of apps out there for it yet, aside from a rather skimpy selection of games (compared to the iOS App Store and Android Play Store). Again, I think Microsoft really screwed themselves with this one--keeping it all under wraps helped them make a big "Oh, WOW" kind of event buzz within the conference hall when they announced Surface, for example, but that buzz sort of left the room (figuratively) when people started looking for their favorite apps so they could start using that device. (Which, by the way, isn't a bad piece of hardware, I'm finding.) I'll give myself a "+1" for this.

THEN: Scala will get bigger, thanks to Heroku.

With the adoption of Scala and Play for their Java apps, Heroku is going to make Scala look attractive as a development platform, and the adoption of Play by Typesafe (the same people who brought you Akka) means that these four--Heroku, Scala, Play and Akka--will combine into a very compelling and interesting platform. I'm looking forward to seeing what comes of that.

NOW: We're going to get to cloud in a second, but on the whole, Heroku is now starting to make Scala/Play attractive, arguably as attractive as Ruby/Rails is. Play 2.0 unfortunately is not backwards-compatible with Play 1.x modules, which hurts it, but hopefully the Play community brings that back up to speed fairly quickly. "+1"

THEN: Cloud will continue to whip up a lot of air.

For all the hype and money spent on it, it doesn't really seem like cloud is gathering commensurate amounts of traction, across all the various cloud providers with the possible exception of Amazon's cloud system. But, as the different cloud platforms start to diversify their platform technology (Microsoft seems to be leading the way here, ironically, with the introduction of Java, Hadoop and some limited NoSQL bits into their Azure offerings), and as we start to get more experience with the pricing and costs of cloud, 2012 might be the year that we start to see mainstream cloud adoption, beyond "just" the usage patterns we've seen so far (as a backing server for mobile apps and as an easy way to spin up startups).

NOW: It's been whipping up air, all right, but it's starting to look like tornadoes and hurricanes--the talk of 2012 seems to have been more around notable cloud outages instead of notable cloud successes, capped off by a nationwide Netflix outage on Christmas Eve that seemed to dominate my Facebook feed that night. Later analysis suggested that the outage was with Amazon's AWS cloud, on which Netflix resides, and boy, did that make a few heads spin. I suspect we haven't yet (as of this writing) seen the last of that discussion. Overall, it seems like lots of startups and other greenfield apps are being deployed to the cloud, but it seems like corporations are hesitating to pull the trigger on an "all-in" kind of cloud adoption, because of some of the fears surrounding cloud security and now (of all things) robustness. "+1"

THEN: Android tablets will start to gain momentum.

Amazon's Kindle Fire has hit the market strong, definitely better than any other Android-based tablet before it. The Nooq (the Kindle's principal competitor, at least in the e-reader world) is also an Android tablet, which means that right now, consumers can get into the Android tablet world for far, far less than what an iPad costs. Apple rumors suggest that they may have a 7" form factor tablet that will price competitively (in the $200/$300 range), but that's just rumor right now, and Apple has never shown an interest in that form factor, which means the 7" world will remain exclusively Android's (at least for now), and that's a nice form factor for a lot of things. This translates well into more sales of Android tablets in general, I think.

NOW: Google's Nexus 7 came to dominate the discussion of the 7" tablet, until...

THEN: Apple will release an iPad 3, and it will be "more of the same".

Trying to predict Apple is generally a lost cause, particularly when it comes to their vaunted iOS lines, but somewhere around the middle of the year would be ripe for a new iPad, at the very least. (With the iPhone 4S out a few months ago, it's hard to imagine they'd cannibalize those sales by releasing a new iPhone, until the end of the year at the earliest.) Frankly, though, I don't expect the iPad 3 to be all that big of a boost, just a faster processor, more storage, and probably about the same size. Probably the only thing I'd want added to the iPad would be a USB port, but that conflicts with the Apple desire to present the iPad as a "device", rather than as a "computer". (USB ports smack of "computers", not self-contained "devices".)

NOW: ... the iPad Mini. Which, I'd like to point out, is just an iPad in a 7" form factor. (Actually, I think it's a little bit bigger than most 7" tablets--it looks to be a smidge wider than the other 7" tablets I have.) And the "new iPad" (not the iPad 3, which I call a massive FAIL on the part of Apple marketing) is exactly that: same iPad, just faster. And still no USB port on either the iPad or iPad Mini. So between this one and the previous one, I score myself at "+3" across both.

THEN: Apple will get hauled in front of the US government for... something.

Apple's recent foray in the legal world, effectively informing Samsung that they can't make square phones and offering advice as to what will avoid future litigation, smacks of such hubris and arrogance, it makes Microsoft look like a Pollyanna Pushover by comparison. It is pretty much a given, it seems to me, that a confrontation in the legal halls is not far removed, either with the US or with the EU, over anti-cometitive behavior. (And if this kind of behavior continues, and there is no legal action, it'll be pretty apparent that Apple has a pretty good set of US Congressmen and Senators in their pocket, something they probably learned from watching Microsoft and IBM slug it out rather than just buy them off.)

NOW: Congress has started to take a serious look at the patent system and how it's being used by patent trolls (of which, folks, I include Apple these days) to stifle innovation and create this Byzantine system of cross-patent licensing that only benefits the big players, which was exactly what the patent system was designed to avoid. (Patents were supposed to be a way to allow inventors, who are often independents, to avoid getting crushed by bigger, established, well-monetized firms.) Apple hasn't been put squarely in the crosshairs, but the Economist's article on Apple, Google, Microsoft and Amazon in the Dec 11th issue definitely points out that all four are squarely in the sights of governments on both sides of the Atlantic. Still, no points for me.

THEN: IBM will be entirely irrelevant again.

Look, IBM's main contribution to the Java world is/was Eclipse, and to a much lesser degree, Harmony. With Eclipse more or less "done" (aside from all the work on plugins being done by third parties), and with IBM abandoning Harmony in favor of OpenJDK, IBM more or less removes themselves from the game, as far as developers are concerned. Which shouldn't really be surprising--they've been more or less irrelevant pretty much ever since the mid-2000s or so.

NOW: IBM who? Wait, didn't they used to make a really kick-ass laptop, back when we liked using laptops? "+1"

THEN: Oracle will "screw it up" at least once.

Right now, the Java community is poised, like a starving vulture, waiting for Oracle to do something else that demonstrates and befits their Evil Emperor status. The community has already been quick (far too quick, if you ask me) to highlight Oracle's supposed missteps, such as the JVM-crashing bug (which has already been fixed in the _u1 release of Java7, which garnered no attention from the various Java news sites) and the debacle around Hudson/Jenkins/whatever-the-heck-we-need-to-call-it-this-week. I'll grant you, the Hudson/Jenkins debacle was deserving of ire, but Oracle is hardly the Evil Emperor the community makes them out to be--at least, so far. (I'll admit it, though, I'm a touch biased, both because Brian Goetz is a friend of mine and because Oracle TechNet has asked me to write a column for them next year. Still, in the spirit of "innocent until proven guilty"....)

NOW: It is with great pleasure that I score myself a "0" here. Oracle's been pretty good about things, sticking with the OpenJDK approach to developing software and talking very openly about what they're trying to do with Java8. They're not entirely innocent, mind you--the fact that a Java install tries to monkey with my browser bar by installing some plugin or other and so on is not something I really appreciate--but they're not acting like Ming the Merciless, either. Matter of fact, they even seem to be going out of their way to be community-inclusive, in some circles. I give myself a "-1" here, and I'm happy to claim it. Good job, guys.

THEN: VMWare/SpringSource will start pushing their cloud solution in a major way.

Companies like Microsoft and Google are pushing cloud solutions because Software-as-a-Service is a reoccurring revenue model, generating revenue even in years when the product hasn't incremented. VMWare, being a product company, is in the same boat--the only time they make money is when they sell a new copy of their product, unless they can start pushing their virtualization story onto hardware on behalf of clients--a.k.a. "the cloud". With SpringSource as the software stack, VMWare has a more-or-less complete cloud play, so it's surprising that they didn't push it harder in 2011; I suspect they'll start cramming it down everybody's throats in 2012. Expect to see Rod Johnson talking a lot about the cloud as a result.

NOW: Again, I give myself a "-1" here, and frankly, I'm shocked to be doing it. I really thought this one was a no-brainer. CloudFoundry seemed like a pretty straightforward play, and VMWare already owned a significant share of the virtualization story, so.... And yet, I really haven't seen much by way of significant marketing, advertising, or developer outreach around their cloud story. It's much the same as what it was in 2011; it almost feels like the parent corporation (EMC) either doesn't "get" why they should push a cloud play, doesn't see it as worth the cost, or else doesn't care. Count me confused. "0"

THEN: JavaScript hype will continue to grow, and by years' end will be at near-backlash levels.

JavaScript (more properly known as ECMAScript, not that anyone seems to care but me) is gaining all kinds of steam as a mainstream development language (as opposed to just-a-browser language), particularly with the release of NodeJS. That hype will continue to escalate, and by the end of the year we may start to see a backlash against it. (Speaking personally, NodeJS is an interesting solution, but suggesting that it will replace your Tomcat or IIS server is a bit far-fetched; event-driven I/O is something both of those servers have been doing for years, and the rest of it is "just" a language discussion. We could pretty easily use JavaScript as the development language inside both servers, as Sun demonstrated years ago with their "Phobos" project--not that anybody really cared back then.)

NOW: JavaScript frameworks are exploding everywhere like fireworks at a Disney theme park. Douglas Crockford is getting more invites to conference keynote opportunities than James Gosling ever did. You can get a job if you know how to spell "NodeJS". And yet, I'm starting to hear the same kinds of rumblings about "how in the hell do we manage a 200K LOC codebase written in JavaScript" that I heard people gripe about Ruby/Rails a few years ago. If the backlash hasn't started, then it's right on the cusp. "+1"

THEN: NoSQL buzz will continue to grow, and by years' end will start to generate a backlash.

More and more companies are jumping into NoSQL-based solutions, and this trend will continue to accelerate, until some extremely public failure will start to generate a backlash against it. (This seems to be a pattern that shows up with a lot of technologies, so it seems entirely realistic that it'll happen here, too.) Mind you, I don't mean to suggest that the backlash will be factual or correct--usually these sorts of things come from misuing the tool, not from any intrinsic failure in it--but it'll generate some bad press.

NOW: Recently, I heard that NBC was thinking about starting up a new comedy series called "Everybody Hates Mongo", with Chris Rock narrating. And I think that's just the beginning--lots of companies, particularly startups, decided to run with a NoSQL solution before seriously contemplating how they were going to make up for the things that a NoSQL doesn't provide (like a schema, for a lot of these), and suddenly find themselves wishing they had spent a little more time thinking about that back in the early days. Again, if the backlash isn't already started, it's about to. "+1"

THEN: Ted will thoroughly rock the house during his CodeMash keynote.

Yeah, OK, that's more of a fervent wish than a prediction, but hey, keep a positive attitude and all that, right?

NOW: Welllll..... Looking back at it with almost a years' worth of distance, I can freely admit I dropped a few too many "F"-bombs (a buddy of mine counted 18), but aside from a (very) vocal minority, my takeaway is that a lot of people enjoyed it. Still, I do wish I'd throttled it back some--InfoQ recorded it, and the fact that it hasn't yet seen public posting on the website implies (to me) that they found it too much work to "bleep" out all the naughty words. Which I call "my bad" on, because I think they were really hoping to use that as part of their promotional activities (not that they needed it, selling out again in minutes). To all those who found it distasteful, I apologize, and to those who chafe at the fact that I'm apologizing, I apologize. I take a "-1" here.

2013 Predictions:

Having thus scored myself at a "9" (out of 17) for last year, let's take a stab at a few for next year:

• "Big data" and "data analytics" will dominate the enterprise landscape. I'm actually pretty late to the ballgame to talk about this one, in fact--it was starting its rapid climb up the hype wave already this year. And, part and parcel with going up this end of the hype wave this quickly, it also stands to reason that companies will start marketing the hell out of the term "big data" without being entirely too precise about what they mean when they say "big data".... By the end of the year, people will start building services and/or products on top of Hadoop, which appears primed to be the "Big Data" platform of choice, thus far.
• NoSQL buzz will start to diversify. The various "NoSQL" vendors are going to start wanting to differentiate themselves from each other, and will start using "NoSQL" in their marketing and advertising talking points less and less. Some of this will be because Pandora's Box on data storage has already been opened--nobody's just assuming a relational database all the time, every time, anymore--but some of this will be because the different NoSQL vendors, who are at different stages in the adoption curve, will want to differentiate themselves from the vendors that are taking on the backlash. I predict Mongo, who seems to be leading the way of the NoSQL vendors, will be the sacrificial scapegoat for a lot of the NoSQL backlash that's coming down the pike.
• Desktops increasingly become niche products. Look, does anyone buy a desktop machine anymore? I have three sitting next to me in my office, and none of the three has been turned on in probably two years--I'm exclusively laptop-bound these days. Between tablets as consumption devices (slowly obsoleting the laptop), and cloud offerings becoming more and more varied (slowly obsoleting the server), there's just no room for companies that sell desktops--or the various Mom-and-Pop shops that put them together for you. In fact, I'm starting to wonder if all those parts I used to buy at Fry's Electronics and swap meets will start to disappear, too. Gamers keep desktops alive, and I don't know if there's enough money in that world to keep lots of those vendors alive. (I hope so, but I don't know for sure.)
• Home servers will start to grow in interest. This may seem paradoxical to the previous point, but I think techno-geek leader-types are going to start looking into "servers-in-a-box" that they can set up at home and have all their devices sync to and store to. Sure, all the media will come through there, and the key here will be "turnkey", since most folks are getting used to machines that "just work". Lots of friends, for example, seem to be using Mac Minis for exactly this purpose, and there's a vendor here in Redmond that sells a ridiculously-powered server in a box for a couple thousand. (This is on my birthday list, right after I get my maxed-out 13" MacBook Air and iPad 3.) This is also going to be fueled by...
• Private cloud is going to start getting hot. The great advantage of cloud is that you don't have to have an IT department; the great disadvantage of cloud is that when things go bad, you don't have an IT department. Too many well-publicized cloud failures are going to drive corporations to try and find a solution that is the best-of-both-worlds: the flexibility and resiliency of cloud provisioning, but staffed by IT resources they can whip and threaten and cajole when things fail. (And, by the way, I fully understand that most cloud providers have better uptimes than most private IT organizations--this is about perception and control and the feelings of powerlessness and helplessness when things go south, not reality.)
• Oracle will release Java8, and while several Java pundits will decry "it's not the Java I love!", most will actually come to like it. Let's be blunt, Java has long since moved past being the flower of fancy and a critic's darling, and it's moved squarely into the battleship-gray of slogging out code and getting line-of-business apps done. Java8 adopting function literals (aka "closures") and retrofitting the Collection library to use them will be a subtle, but powerful, extension to the lifetime of the Java language, but it's never going to be sexy again. Fortunately, it doesn't need to be.
• Microsoft will start courting the .NET developers again. Windows8 left a bad impression in the minds of many .NET developers, with the emphasis on HTML/JavaScript apps and C++ apps, leaving many .NET developers to wonder if they were somehow rendered obsolete by the new platform. Despite numerous attempts in numerous ways to tell them no, developers still seem to have that opinion--and Microsoft needs to go on the offensive to show them that .NET and Windows8 (and WinRT) do, in fact, go very well together. Microsoft can't afford for their loyal developer community to feel left out or abandoned. They know that, and they'll start working on it.
• Samsung will start pushing themselves further and further into the consumer market. They already have started gathering more and more of a consumer name for themselves, they just need to solidify their tablet offerings and get closer in line with either Google (for Android tablets) or even Microsoft (for Windows8 tablets and/or Surface competitors) to compete with Apple. They may even start looking into writing their own tablet OS, which would be something of a mistake, but an understandable one.
• Apple's next release cycle will, again, be "more of the same". iPhone 6, iPad 4, iPad Mini 2, MacBooks, MacBook Airs, none of them are going to get much in the way of innovation or new features. Apple is going to run squarely into the Innovator's Dilemma soon, and their products are going to be "more of the same" for a while. Incremental improvements along a couple of lines, perhaps, but nothing Earth-shattering. (Hey, Apple, how about opening up Siri to us to program against, for example, so we can hook into her command structure and hook our own apps up? I can do that with Android today, why not her?)
• Visual Studio 2014 features will start being discussed at the end of the year. If Microsoft is going to hit their every-two-year-cycle with Visual Studio, then they'll start talking/whispering/rumoring some of the v.Next features towards the middle to end of 2013. I fully expect C# 6 will get some form of type providers, Visual Basic will be a close carbon copy of C# again, and F# 4 will have something completely revolutionary that anyone who sees it will be like, "Oh, cool! Now, when can I get that in C#?"
• Scala interest wanes. As much as I don't want it to happen, I think interest in Scala is going to slow down, and possibly regress. This will be the year that Typesafe needs to make a major splash if they want to show the world that they're serious, and I don't know that the JVM world is really all that interested in seeing a new player. Instead, I think Scala will be seen as what "the 1%" of the Java community uses, and the rest will take some ideas from there and apply them (poorly, perhaps) to Java.
• Interest in native languages will rise. Just for kicks, developers will start experimenting with some of the new compile-to-native-code languages (Go, Rust, Slate, Haskell, whatever) and start finding some of the joys (and heartaches) that come with running "on the metal". More importantly, they'll start looking at ways to use these languages with platforms where running "on the metal" is more important, like mobile devices and tablets.

As always, folks, thanks for reading. See you next year.

• Hardware is the new platform. A buddy of mine (Scott Davis) pointed out on a mailing list we share that "hardware is the new platform", and with Microsoft's Surface out now, there's three major players (Apple, Google, Microsoft) in this game. It's becoming apparent that more and more companies are starting to see opportunities in going the Apple route of owning not just the OS and the store, but the hardware underneath it. More and more companies are going to start playing this game, too, I think, and we're going to see Amazon take some shots here, and probably a few others. Of course, already announced is the Ubuntu Phone, and a new Android-like player, Tizen, but I'm not thinking about new players--there's always new players--but about some of the big standouts. And look for companies like Dell and HP to start looking for ways to play in this game, too, either through partnerships or acquisitions. (Hello, Oracle, I'm looking at you.... And Adobe, too.)
• APIs for lots of things are going to come out. Ford just did this. This is not going away--this is going to proliferate. And the startup community is going to lap it up like kittens attacking a bowl of cream. If you're looking for a play in the startup world, pursue this.

There's an interesting legal interpretation coming out of the Electronic Freedom Foundation (EFF) around the Megaupload case, and the EFF has said this:

"The government maintains that Mr. Goodwin lost his property rights in his data by storing it on a cloud computing service. Specifically, the government argues that both the contract between Megaupload and Mr. Goodwin (a standard cloud computing contract) and the contract between Megaupload and the server host, Carpathia (also a standard agreement), "likely limit any property interest he may have" in his data. (Page 4). If the government is right, no provider can both protect itself against sudden losses (like those due to a hurricane) and also promise its customers that their property rights will be maintained when they use the service. Nor can they promise that their property might not suddenly disappear, with no reasonable way to get it back if the government comes in with a warrant. Apparently your property rights "become severely limited" if you allow someone else to host your data under standard cloud computing arrangements. This argument isn't limited in any way to Megaupload -- it would apply if the third party host was Amazon's S3 or Google Apps or or Apple iCloud."

What the government actually says is that the state of Mr. Goodwin's property rights depends on his agreement with the cloud provider and their agreement with the infrastructure provider. The question ultimately comes down to: if I upload data onto a machine that you own, who owns the copy of the data that ends up on your machine? The answer to that question depends on the agreements involved, which is what the government is saying. Without reviewing the agreements, it isn't clear if the upload should be thought of as a loan, a gift, a transfer, or something else.

Lacking any physical embodiment, it is not clear whether the bits comprising these uploaded digital artifacts constitute property in the traditional sense at all. Even if they do, the government is arguing that who owns the bits may have nothing to do with who controls the use of the bits; that the two are separate matters. That's quite standard: your decision to buy a book from the bookstore conveys ownership to you, but does not give you the right to make further copies of the book. Once a copy of the data leaves the possession of Mr. Goodwin, the constraints on its use are determined by copyright law and license terms. The agreement between Goodwin and the cloud provider clearly narrows the copyright-driven constraints, because the cloud provider has to be able to make copies to provide their services, and has surely placed terms that permit this in their user agreement. The consequences for ownership are unclear. In particular: if the cloud provider (as opposed to Mr. Goodwin) makes an authorized copy of Goodwin's data in the course of their operations, using only the resources of the cloud provider, the ownership of that copy doesn't seem obvious at all. A license may exist requiring that copy to be destroyed under certain circumstances (e.g. if Mr. Goodwin terminates his contract), but that doesn't speak to ownership of the copy.

Because no sale has occurred, and there was clearly no intent to cede ownership, the Government's challenge concerning ownership has the feel of violating common sense. If you share that feeling, welcome to the world of intellectual property law. But while everyone is looking at the negative side of this argument, it's worth considering that there may be positive consequences of the Government's argument. In Germany, for example, software is property. It is illegal (or at least unenforceable) to write a software license in Germany that stops me from selling my copy of a piece of software to my friend, so long as I remove it from my machine. A copy of a work of software can be resold in the same way that a book can be resold because it is property. At present, the provisions of UCITA in the U.S. have the effect that you do not own a work of software that you buy. If the district court in Virginia determines that a recipient has property rights in a copy of software that they receive, that could have far-reaching consequences, possibly including a consequent right of resale in the United States.

Now, whether or not Jon's interpretation is correct, there are some huge legal implications of this interpretation of the cloud, because data "ownership" is going to be the defining legal issue of the next century.

As the calendar year comes to a close, it's time (it's well past time, in fact) that I comment publicly on my obvious absence from the No Fluff, Just Stuff tour.

In January, when I emailed Jay Zimmerman, the organizer of the conference, to talk about topics for the coming year, I got no response. This is pretty typical Jay--he is notoriously difficult to reach over email, unless he has something he wants from you. In his defense, that's not an uncommon modus operandi for a lot of people, and it's pretty common to have to email him several times to get his attention. It's something I wish he were a little more professional about, but... *shrug* The point is, when I emailed him and got no response, I didn't think much of it.

However, as soon as the early years' schedule came out, a friend of mine on the tour emailed me to ask why I wasn't scheduled for any of the shows--I responded with a rather shocked "Wat?" and checked for myself--sure enough, nowhere on the tour. I emailed Jay, and... cue the "Sounds of Silence" melody.

Apparently, my participation was no longer desired.

Now, in all fairness, last year I joined Neudesic, LLC as a full-time employee, working as an Architectural Consultant and I mentioned to Jay that I was interested in scaling back my participation from all the shows (25 or so across the year) to maybe 15 or so, but at no point did I ever intend to give him the impression that I wanted to pull off the tour entirely. Granted, the travel schedule is brutal--last year (calendar year 2011) it wasn't uncommon for me to be doing three talks each day (Friday, Saturday and Sunday), and living in Seattle usually meant that I had to use all day Thursday to fly out to wherever the show was being held, and could sometimes return on Sunday night but more often had to fly back on Monday, making for a pretty long weekend. But I enjoyed hanging with my speaker buddies, I enjoyed engaging with the crowds, and I definitely enjoyed the "aha" moments that would fire off inside my head while speaking. (I'm an "external processor", so talking out loud is actually a very effective way for me to think about things.)

Across the year, I got a few emails and Tweets from people asking about my absence, and I always tried to respond to those as fairly and politely as I could without hiding the fact that I wished I was still there. In truth, folks, I have to admit, I enjoy having my weekends back. I miss the tour, but being off of it has made me realize just how much family time I was missing when I was off gallavanting across the country to various hotel conference rooms to talk about JVMs or languages or APIs. I miss hanging with my speaker friends, but friends remain friends regardless of circumstance, and I'm happy to say that holds true here as well. I miss the chance to hone my ideas and talks, but that in of itself isn't enough to justify missing out on my 13-year-old's football games or just enjoying a quiet Saturday with my wife on the back porch.

All in all, though I didn't ask for it, my rather unceremonious "boot" to the backside off the tour has worked out quite well. Yes, I'd love to come back to the tour and talk again, but that's up to Jay, not me. I wouldn't mind coming back, but I don't mind not being there, either. And, quite honestly, I think there's probably more than a few attendees who are a bit relieved that I'm not there, since sitting in on my sessions was always running the risk that they'd be singled out publicly, which I've been told is something of a "character-building experience". *grin*

Long story short, if enough NFJS attendee alumni make the noise to Jay to bring me back, and he offers it, I'd take it. But it's not something I need to do, so if the crowds at NFJS are happy without me, then I'm happy to stay home, sip my Diet Coke, blog a little more, and just bask in the memories of almost a full decade of the NFJS experience. It was a hell of a run, and I'm very content with having been there from almost the very beginning and helping to make that into one of the best conference experiences anyone's ever had.