Sunday, January 1, 2006
2006 Tech Predictions

In keeping with the tradition, I'm suggesting the following will take place for 2006:

  1. The hype surrounding Ajax will slowly fade, as people come to realize that there's really nothing new here, just that DHTML is cool again. As Dion points out, Ajax will become a toolbox that you use in web development without thinking that "I am doing Ajax". Just as we don't think about "doing HTML" vs "doing DOM".
  2. The release of EJB 3 may actually start people thinking about EJB again, but hopefully this time in a more pragmatic and less hype-driven fashion. (Yes, EJB does have its place in the world, folks--it's just a much smaller place than most of the EJB vendors and book authors wanted it to be.)
  3. Vista will be slipped to 2007, despite Microsoft's best efforts. In the meantime, however, WinFX (which is effectively .NET 3.0) will ship, and people will discover that Workflow (WWF) is by far the more interesting of the WPF/WCF/WWF triplet. Notice that I don't say "powerful" or "important", but "interesting".
  4. Scripting languages will hit their peak interest period in 2006; Ruby conversions will be at its apogee, and its likely that somewhere in the latter half of 2006 we'll hear about the first major Ruby project failure, most likely from a large consulting firm that tries to duplicate the success of Ruby's evangelists (Dave Thomas, David Geary, and the other Rubyists I know of from the NFJS tour) by throwing Ruby at a project without really understanding it. In other words, same story, different technology, same result. By 2007 the Ruby Backlash will have begun.
  5. Interest in building languages that somehow bridge the gap between static and dynamic languages will start to grow, most likely beginning with E4X, the variant of ECMAScript (Javascript to those of you unfamiliar with the standards) that integrates XML into the language.
  6. Java developers will start gaining interest in building rich Java apps again. (Freely admit, this is a long shot, but the work being done by the Swing researchers at Sun, not least of which is Romain Guy, will by the middle of 2006 probably be ready for prime-time consumption, and there's some seriously interesting sh*t in there.)
  7. Somebody at Microsoft starts seriously hammering on the CLR team to support continuations. Talk emerges about supporting it in the 4.0 (post-WinFX) release.
  8. Effective Java (2nd Edition) will ship. (Hardly a difficult prediction to make--Josh said as much in the Javapolis interview I did with him and Neal Gafter.)
  9. Effective .NET will ship.
  10. Pragmatic XML Services will ship.
  11. JDK 6 will ship, and a good chunk of the Java community self-proclaimed experts and cognoscente will claim it sucks.
  12. Java developers will seriously begin to talk about what changes we want/need to Java for JDK 7 ("Dolphin"). Lots of ideas will be put forth. Hopefully most will be shot down. With any luck, Joshua Bloch and Neal Gafter will still be involved in the process, and will keep tight rein on the more... aggressive... ideas and turn them into useful things that won't break the spirit of the platform.
  13. My long-shot hope, rather than prediction, for 2006: Sun comes to realize that the Java platform isn't about the language, but the platform, and begin to give serious credence and hope behind a multi-linguistic JVM ecosystem.
  14. My long-shot dream: JBoss goes out of business, the JBoss source code goes back to being maintained by developers whose principal interest is in maintaining open-source projects rather than making money, and it all gets folded together with what the Geronimo folks are doing. In other words, the open-source community stops the infighting and starts pulling oars in the same direction at the same time. For once.
Flame away....

.NET | C++ | Conferences | Development Processes | Java/J2EE | Reading | Ruby | XML Services

Sunday, January 1, 2006 12:25:56 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)
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